A New War Over Nagorno-Karabakh in the South Caucasus?

With growing uncertainty about the regional power balance in Nagorno-Karabakh, we analyse the concerns that another conflict could erupt.

For nearly 30 years, the confrontation over landlocked Nagorno-Karabakh persisted through numerous rounds of negotiations and a massive regional arms build-up between Azerbaijan and Armenia. In 2020, Azerbaijan launched an offensive using its modernised armed forces, overwhelming the Armenian defences and reclaiming the occupied territories as well as key parts of Karabakh itself. The agreement at the end of the conflict led to the introduction of a Russian peacekeeping force and proposals for new transport corridors to open up the region.

The war of 2020 also unsettled the region’s geopolitical balance, with Russia further weakened by the ongoing Ukraine war, and Turkey and Iran taking a stronger interest in the South Caucasus. Western countries are belatedly stepping up their engagement. What are the prospects of finding a peaceful solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute and avoiding ethnic cleansing of the region?

Host Neil Melvin sits down with Laurence Broers from Conciliation Resources and Amanda Paul from the European Policy Centre to answer this very question. Tune in now!