From Gold Profits to Oil Equities: The Next Contrarian Setup? | Compass

Recording date: 10th December 2025

Olive Resource Capital's November 2025 portfolio performance—reaching year-to-date highs despite October's commodity market volatility—demonstrates the strategic value of disciplined gold position management within diversified resource portfolios. Whilst the firm identifies compelling contrarian opportunities in oil equities trading at generational lows, their analysis paradoxically reinforces gold's foundational importance through quantitative validation and macro context.

The most striking evidence emerges from commodity ratio analysis. The oil-to-gold ratio currently sits at 20% of its 25-year historical average, representing an extraordinary dislocation that simultaneously confirms oil's severe undervaluation and validates gold's exceptional relative strength. This 500% premium to historical norms reflects fundamental repricing within commodity markets, with gold demonstrating superior pricing power amidst coordinated global liquidity expansion.

Executive Chairman Derek McPherson and President & CEO Samuel Pelaez articulated the macro framework supporting hard asset valuations: persistent deficit spending across the United States, China, Canada, and European nations creates monetary conditions under which gold has historically thrived. "There is tons of liquidity coming and so your hard assets which oil is one of are going to be economic at least economic stability if not economic growth," McPherson explained, referencing macroeconomist Lyn Alden's observation that debt-financed economic support creates inexorable momentum favouring tangible assets over financial claims.

China's commodity accumulation behaviour provides instructive parallels. The nation's documented gold reserve building during 2022-2024 contributed significantly to gold's rally from $1,800 to over $4,000 per ounce. Now applying similar logic to crude oil—stockpiling 700,000 barrels daily beyond refining needs—China demonstrates sovereign recognition of strategic hard asset acquisition during relative weakness. This pattern validates gold's completed appreciation cycle whilst identifying emerging opportunities in complementary commodities.

Olive Resource Capital's tactical approach exemplifies professional position management. The team trimmed gold exposure during September 2025's strength, capturing profits whilst maintaining strategic core holdings, then added positions during October-November weakness at improved valuations. "We've actually been adding positions and effectively reducing our cash balance," McPherson confirmed, describing deployment across selective gold equities alongside exploratory oil positions.

This disciplined rebalancing contrasts sharply with wholesale rotation between commodity sectors. Gold maintains permanent strategic importance through unique characteristics: portfolio insurance properties, liquidity during market stress, and systematic sensitivity to monetary conditions. Whilst cyclical opportunities in energy or base metals may offer superior near-term returns, gold provides stability and appreciation independent of specific economic outcomes.

The investment framework applies across commodity cycles. Pelaez referenced Agnico Eagle's 20-30x return from 2015-2025, demonstrating rewards from acquiring premier assets during sector pessimism. "You can buy top of class best management best run companies and you still stand an opportunity to make multiples on your money," he observed regarding current oil valuations—a principle equally applicable to quality gold producers offering continued leverage to further monetary metal appreciation.

For sophisticated investors, gold's role transcends cyclical trading. The monetary environment—coordinated deficit spending, currency debasement, sovereign reserve diversification—creates conditions for sustained appreciation whilst maintaining portfolio foundation that enables tactical exploration of complementary opportunities. The lesson from Olive Resource Capital proves clear: gold serves as strategic anchor whilst other commodity sectors rotate through relative value cycles.

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