HousingWire Daily Logan Mohtashami on what’s influencing mortgage rates
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Jun 9, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst renowned for his insights into the housing market, joins to discuss the impact of economic indicators on mortgage rates. He breaks down recent employment trends and their significance for Federal Reserve policies. The conversation touches on how political dynamics, including the Trump-Musk dispute, could sway market trends. Mohtashami also urges more meaningful debates about economic forecasts and the importance of accurate data in navigating mortgage predictions.
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Labor Market Slowing Down
- The labor market is underperforming compared to early 2023 estimates, with average monthly job creation now at 124,000 versus the forecasted 133-151,000.
- This underperformance makes rate cuts by the Federal Reserve more complex, as the labor market is not showing clear signs of breaking yet.
Fed Waiting to Play Catch Up
- Federal Reserve officials appear to rely more on business conversations than data, waiting to 'play catch up' after data confirms economic weakness.
- This delayed reaction indicates the Fed may cut rates late, once economic trends are undeniable, complicating monetary policy timing.
Residential Construction Jobs Slight Growth
- Residential construction jobs showed growth in June 2025, countering previous monthly declines and marking only one negative report year-to-date.
- Historically, persistent declines in residential construction jobs signal recessions, so this slight growth may indicate a stabilizing housing labor sector.