Joining Malcolm Turnbull are Rear Admiral Peter D Briggs, a seasoned submarine operator with 40 years in the Royal Australian Navy, along with Jennifer Parker, a Principal Warfare Officer and HMAS Darwin's second-in-command for two decades, and Dennis Richardson, former Secretary of Defence and Australia’s Ambassador to the U.S. They tackle the viability of AUKUS, questioning its current strategy. The need for a practical submarine design and Australia’s military sovereignty takes center stage, emphasizing the importance of strategic autonomy in a rapidly changing global landscape.
Australia's defense strategy must evolve beyond AUKUS, addressing emerging threats with innovative solutions like autonomous systems and alternative submarine designs.
Concerns surrounding the AUKUS partnership highlight the need for adequate submarine capabilities that are both effective and financially sustainable for Australia.
A nuanced understanding of sovereignty in defense procurement is essential as Australia seeks to balance technological independence with practical military capabilities.
Deep dives
Reassessing Australia's Strategic Landscape
Australia faces a crucial period in which it must reevaluate its foreign defense policies due to the changing dynamics of international order, particularly influenced by the second Trump administration. The absence of dependable protection from a great power presents a unique challenge that urges Australian leaders to engage in serious discussions on their strategic future. This situation compels the country to move beyond a defensive stance and instead actively contemplate long-term strategies for national security, particularly in the context of regional diplomacy and military preparedness. The urgency of this discourse is underscored by the establishment of forums such as the sovereignty and security forum held in Canberra, which aims to broaden public understanding and involvement in the strategic planning process.
The Viability of AUKUS and Submarine Capabilities
The ongoing discussions center around the viability of the AUKUS partnership and the submarine capabilities it promises to deliver, specifically questioning if the Virginia-class submarines from the US and the proposed SSN AUKUS are adequate for Australia’s needs. Experts argue that while the nuclear option presents enhanced stealth and operational longevity, the current plan suffers from design flaws that compromise its effectiveness and affordability. Furthermore, concerns about the United States' production capabilities and the prospect of late deliveries raise red flags about whether Australia can build a credible defense strategy around these submarines. With differing perspectives on what constitutes an effective undersea warfare capability for Australia, the debate continues regarding what adjustments, if any, should be made to ensure a robust maritime defense posture.
Rethinking Sovereignty and Defense Priorities
The podcast highlights the concept of sovereignty in defense procurement and emphasizes the need to navigate the complexities that come with acquiring military capabilities, especially as a middle power. Experts suggest that Australia must accept trade-offs in technological independence in order to enhance its overall defense capabilities, reiterating historical examples where sovereign ambitions conflicted with practical realities. There's a growing recognition that the fear of losing sovereignty should not slow down the urgent need for upgrade and modernization, especially concerning submarine capabilities. As Australia continues to grapple with its defense strategies, discussions on overseas partnerships and collaborations become essential in ensuring national security.
Assessing Risk and Financial Considerations
Financial implications of defense projects, particularly the AUKUS submarine plan, raise critical assessments on budget allocation and overall sustainability of defense spending. The reported estimates, while alarming to some, are not markedly different from previous submarine projects, indicating that fears regarding cost overruns may be overstated. Nevertheless, the debate about managing these estimated costs is crucial, as analysts assert that projections often come with high contingencies that complicate funding discussions. Understanding actual costs versus projected expenses could alleviate some of the apprehensions tied to public perception and foster a more informed discourse around military expenditure in Australia.
A Call for Innovative Solutions and Alternatives
The conversation points towards the necessity for exploring alternative solutions or 'Plan B' scenarios, especially in light of the uncertainties surrounding the AUKUS partnership. Suggestions around adopting a different submarine design, like the French Suffren, have been posited as potentially more suitable and economical for Australia's unique strategic requirements. However, recalibrating the current defense approach requires acknowledgment of existing risks and a commitment to innovation within the Australian defense landscape. Emphasizing the development of autonomous and unmanned systems could also pave the way for a novel operational framework that embraces modern technology while complementing traditional submarine capabilities, ensuring Australia is prepared for evolving maritime threats.
Recorded at Malcolm Turnbull’s Sovereignty and Security forum held in Canberra.
This panel discusses the viability of AUKUS in its current form, and what needs to change to deliver sovereign undersea warfare capabilities that Australia can afford to own and man.
Panellists include: Dennis Richardson AO, served as Secretary of Defence, Secretary of Foreign Affairs, was the Director General of the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) for almost a decade to 2005, and was the Australian Ambassador to the United States for 5 years until 2010; Jennifer Parker, served for 20 years with the Royal Australian Navy, specialising in Principal Warfare Officer. She was second in command of the HMAS Darwin, our guided missile frigate; Rear Admiral Peter D Briggs AO OAM served in the Royal Australian Navy for 40 years, specialising as a submarine operator. He was in Command of HMAS Stirling, and was Head of Submarine Capability resolving Collins introduction into service issues.
