HousingWire Daily Logan Mohtashami on his 2026 housing forecast
Dec 31, 2025
Logan Mohtashami, the lead housing analyst and expert in mortgage trends, joins for a deep dive into the housing market forecast for 2026. He discusses the tug of war between buyers and sellers that will define the year. Logan explores the nuances of nominal vs. real home prices and projects a slight decline unless rates stabilize. He emphasizes the crucial role of the bond market in influencing rates and highlights the importance of new inventory signals as indicators of market health.
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Tug Of War Returns To Housing
- Logan frames 2026 as a tug-of-war returning balance between buyers and sellers after years of unhealthy low inventory.
- He expects a normal market where sellers aren't forced and competition resumes between parties.
Tracker Data Beat The Headlines
- Logan calls 2025 a near-perfect year for his models, with 10-year yield channels and mortgage spread behavior matching expectations.
- He credits disciplined weekly tracker data for accurate forecasting amid noisy headlines.
Forecast Channels Not Single Rates
- Avoid forecasting single mortgage rates; instead, forecast channels for yields and spreads.
- Use channel ranges to teach markets what to expect rather than a fixed point estimate.