Malcolm Turnbull, former Prime Minister of Australia, shares his firsthand experiences with Trump’s first term and offers strategies for effective diplomacy. Bilahari Kausikan, a seasoned diplomat from Singapore, provides an Asian perspective on the implications of Trump’s return for regional dynamics. They discuss the complexities of U.S.-China relations, the risks posed by a second Trump administration, and the challenges that global leaders face in navigating Trump’s transactional foreign policy. Insights abound on managing alliances amid shifting power balances.
Effective diplomacy with Trump requires assertiveness and the ability to confront his bullying tendencies rather than resorting to flattery.
Asian leaders are preparing for potential disruptions in U.S. foreign policy, emphasizing pragmatic approaches to navigate their national interests amidst rising geopolitical tensions.
Deep dives
Engaging Trump's Leadership
Building a productive relationship with Donald Trump requires earning his respect, which cannot be achieved through flattery or sycophancy. Former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull emphasizes that leaders must confront Trump and stand up to his bullying tendencies to be effective. For instance, Turnbull recounts a heated phone conversation regarding a refugee resettlement deal, where his insistence on honoring agreements ultimately led to a more constructive relationship with Trump. This dynamic illustrates the principle that assertiveness rather than submission fosters productive diplomacy.
Impact of Trump's Policies on Asia
The return of Trump to the presidency raises concerns over the potential realignment of American foreign policy, particularly regarding its impact on Asia. Bilahari Kausikan discusses how Asian leaders are preparing for the challenges posed by a possibly disruptive U.S. administration. They aim to navigate their relationships with both the U.S. and China while asserting their own national interests. Kausikan underscores the importance of maintaining a pragmatic approach, as leaders in Asia understand the complexities of both American and Chinese ambitions.
The Dangers of American Disruption
The conversation highlights the risks associated with Trump's rhetoric, particularly his threats regarding territories like Greenland and the Panama Canal. Such assertions undermine American credibility as a defender of international norms, particularly in the face of aggression from nations like China and Russia. Turnbull argues that this 'might is right' mindset can embolden adversaries and destabilize international relations. The implications for American allies are profound, as they must navigate a landscape where traditional notions of diplomacy may be severely challenged.
The Consequences of Populism
As Trump embodies a global populist movement, his leadership style influences political dynamics beyond U.S. borders, affecting allies such as those in Europe and Asia. There is concern among Asian leaders regarding their ability to assert their interests amid the rise of populism fueled by Trump's example. Countries like Singapore navigate this landscape by balancing relationships based on national interests rather than shared values. The result is a cautious approach that seeks to preserve agency in the face of larger geopolitical shifts, emphasizing the need for leaders to remain adaptable.
With Donald Trump about to return to the White House, leaders around the world are bracing for what could be a significant realignment in U.S. foreign policy—and trying to prepare their own country’s response.
In a special two-part episode, Foreign Affairs Editor Dan Kurtz-Phelan speaks with two policymakers who have grappled directly with the disruption that may come in Trump 2.0. Malcolm Turnbull, who was Australia’s prime minister during Trump’s first term, shares his lessons about how leaders can most effectively engage the new administration. And Bilahari Kausikan, one of Singapore’s most seasoned diplomats and analysts, considers what Trump’s return will mean for Asia.
Together, these conversations offer a window into how global leaders are approaching a period of potential turmoil—and an unvarnished guide to power politics in an era of American disruption.