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Credit Check: Lessons, Losses and Hot Takes

10 snips
Dec 18, 2025
Hosts discuss the tumultuous 2025 US credit market and offer insights for 2026. They reflect on market resilience and the impact of liquidity and technicals. The conversation includes the complexities of interest rate forecasting and the effects of tariffs on corporate behavior. Key topics include the underestimation of new-issue supply and the importance of risk assessment. A lightning round reveals their candid takes on private credit and refinancing risks, providing valuable perspectives for navigating a late-cycle credit landscape.
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INSIGHT

Technicals Overrode Tariff Fears

  • Mid-May market resilience surprised strategists as spreads tightened despite tariff headlines.
  • That moment highlighted how technicals can paper over fundamentals for extended periods.
INSIGHT

Markets Were Awash With Liquidity

  • 2025 was defined by abundant liquidity that supported asset prices.
  • Money market cash and yield mechanically funded large inflows into IG mutual funds and ETFs.
ADVICE

Adjust Duration Tactically

  • Revisit duration views actively as new data arrives and avoid fixation on 12‑month forecasts.
  • Move tactically between neutral and overweight as labor and rate signals evolve.
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