Football Figures | Stats + Stories Episode 377

Dec 11, 2025

Guest

Adriana Gonzalez Sanchez

Guest

Ryan Elmore

Guest

Mike Lopez

In a deep dive into football analytics, Mike Lopez, the NFL's Senior Director of Data and Analytics, explores how data shapes football strategies, rule changes, and player evaluations. He discusses the NFL's focus on safety and entertainment and shares insights on the dynamic kickoff trial outcomes. Ryan Elmore and Adriana Gonzalez Sanchez reveal their research on whether icing the kicker actually impacts performance, concluding there's little effect. They emphasize practical coaching tips, urging teams to use timeouts wisely. It's a game-changing discussion!

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INSIGHT

Balancing Competing Goals

The NFL office balances game excitement, equity, officiating quality, and player safety when evaluating rule changes.
Data helps predict trade-offs so decision-makers can choose rule adjustments that best serve the overall game.

ANECDOTE

Kickoff Rule Change In Practice

The NFL changed the kickoff to reduce speed and space and make returns more common while improving safety.
After incentives and moving touchbacks to the 35, landing-zone kicks rose from ~20% to 73% and returns increased modestly.

INSIGHT

The Data Explosion

Next-Gen Stats added RFID tracking at 10 frames per second, expanding game data from hundreds to hundreds of thousands of rows per game.
That scale forced teams to hire analysts and use languages like R and Python to extract actionable insights.

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American Football is a game played with 11 players on offense competing against 11 players on defense, with a sequence of plays executed as one team attempts to outscore the other, but each discrete play reflects actions on the field by players and off the field by coaches. For example, what is the best spot on the field to complete a pass and not get it intercepted? How do quarterbacks differ with respect to their release points? When should you ice the kicker? These are the questions that we are trying to answer on this special football-themed episode of Stats+Stories. Mike Lopez serves as Senior Director of data and analytics at the National Football League, and he's held this position since August of 2018, after previously serving as director in the same department. Before this role, Mike worked at Skidmore College as a lecturer, research associate and as an assistant professor. Adriana Gonzalez Sanchez is pursuing a PhD in business analytics from the University of Cincinnati, with a research focus on discrete data analysis and statistical methodology. Ryan Elmore is an associate professor in the Department of Business Information and Analytics at the University of Denver's Daniel College of Business. His research interests include statistics and sports, non-parametric statistical methods, and energy-efficient high-performance computing. He currently serves as an associate editor for the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. Background in Sports Analytics 2:00 Evolution of Football Data 5:23 2024 Kickoff Rule Changes 8:36 Next Generation Stats and Data Collection 15:28 In-Game Analytics and Coaching Decisions 20:35 Fourth Down Strategy Revolution 24:23 Future of Player Evaluation 27:20 Replay Process Efficiency 28:30 Ryan Elmore and Adriana Gonzalez Sanchez Interview Starts 31:50 Inspiration for the Research 33:23 Play-by-Play Data 37:53 Defining Iced Kicks & Matching Approach 40:33 Causal Inference & “Parallel Universes” Idea 45:05 Strategic Use of Timeouts & Other Situations 51:03 Future Research Directions 57:25