Bloomberg Talks Claudia Sahm Talks US Unemployment
Dec 31, 2025
Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, delves into the latest trends in US unemployment and labor markets. She highlights a surprising drop in jobless claims, indicating stability in employment despite fears of layoffs. Sahm discusses how demographic shifts and slower immigration are shaping hiring alongside GDP growth. She also examines the impact of interest rate cuts on manufacturing jobs, the role of AI in the workforce, and the value of skills training in today's job market.
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Layoff Announcements Haven't Become Layoffs
- Unemployment claims show no broad deterioration, indicating layoffs haven't materialized as feared.
- Claudia Sahm says this is good news but not definitive because hiring remains weak.
Year-End Claims Need Careful Reading
- Holiday and seasonal effects make turn-of-year claims hard to interpret.
- Sahm cautions the recent dip could be promising but wants to see hiring data confirm it.
Demand Lags Supply Even As GDP Rises
- Slower hiring and a slight uptick in unemployment suggest demand lags supply despite GDP growth.
- Sahm sees ingredients for hiring pickup but expects only a modest improvement versus earlier years.