The Genesis Invitational Predictions

Will Doctor gives you the sharpest card for the Genesis Invitational

-Top names on odds board matchups outrights -Sleeper, FRP, lineups, scoring

-Best bet For more on the world of golf, follow Doc on X @drmedia59

Course Conditions & Challenges (3:00 - 7:30)

• Weather forecast: Rain expected Wednesday through Friday with constant breeze, making the course even tougher.
• Course setup: Narrow fairways, deep rough, and small greens.
• Player reaction: Ben Griffin posted a video on social media showing how deadly the rough is.
• Difficulty level: Similar to U.S. Open conditions, making precision a necessity.

Review of Week 6 – Waste Management Phoenix Open (7:30 - 15:45)

• Detry (Belgium) won his first PGA Tour event after 68 starts.
• Opened at 90-1 odds.
• Winning Score: -18 (Rounds: 66, 64, 65, 65).
• Beat Michael Kim & Daniel Berger by four strokes.
• Fended off Jordan Spieth, Scottie Scheffler, and Rasmus Højgaard in the final round.

• Detry birdied the final four holes.
• Crucial shot on 16th hole ("Ferrari shot") almost broke the flagstick.
• Competitors Berger & Højgaard faltered on 16, missing long.

• Lost 5.1 units on the week, down 30.8 on the season.
• Kurt Kitayama (66-1) & Gary Woodland (115-1) failed to cash.
• Scotty Scheffler (+320 to lead after round 1) lost due to double bogey on 12.
• One winning bet: Rico Hoey over Thriston Lawrence (-106).

• Tom Kim at 8-1 at the halfway mark (Saturday morning) was a terrible bet.
• He fell apart, finishing T44 after shooting +3 over the last 36 holes.

Genesis Invitational Betting Picks (15:45 - 54:41)

1. Scottie Scheffler (5-1)

• T25 at Phoenix Open.
• Concerns: Short game struggles, bad track record at Torrey Pines.
• Verdict: PASS.

1. Rory McIlroy (7.5-1)

• Recent win at Pebble Beach.
• Strong history at Torrey Pines (never worse than T16).
• Bet: Rory McIlroy over Scheffler (+125 at Caesars).

1. Collin Morikawa (16-1)

• Leads PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Total.
• Greens in Regulation & Birdie Leader.
• Bet: Outright winner at 16-1 (BetOnline).

1. Justin Thomas (18-1)

• Great recent form but bad record at Torrey Pines.
• Verdict: PASS.

1. Hideki Matsuyama (25-1)

• Driving accuracy struggles.
• Verdict: PASS.

1. Ludvig Åberg (25-1)

• Sick at Farmers, withdrew at Pebble Beach.
• Lost strokes on driving accuracy & short game.
• Verdict: PASS.

Matchups

1. Rory McIlroy over Scottie Scheffler (+125)
2. Sepp Straka over Sam Burns (-115)

• Burns has lost strokes in driving accuracy for 4 straight events.

1. Will Zalatoris over Maverick McNealy (+117)

• Zalatoris has three top-13s in four starts at Torrey Pines.

1. Harris English over Byeong Hun An (+127)

• English won Farmers at Torrey Pines, while An has never finished better than 62nd there.

Top 20 Finishes

1. Taylor Pendrith (+130)

• Back-to-back top 10s at Torrey Pines.

1. Tony Finau (+150)

• Elite iron player, great history at Torrey Pines.

Outright Winners

1. Collin Morikawa (16-1)
2. Rasmus Højgaard (40-1)

• 5-time DP World Tour winner.
• Great driving accuracy, elite iron play.

Sleeper Pick

• Adam Scott to Top 20 (+210)
• T10 at 2021 Farmers, solo 2nd in 2019.
• Four top-35 finishes at Torrey Pines.

First-Round Bets

1. Rory McIlroy to Top 10 after Round 1 (+120)

• Consistently strong opening rounds.

1. Rasmus Højgaard to Top 10 after Round 1 (+275)

• Second on Tour in first-round scoring.

DFS Lineups

DraftKings

• Morikawa ($10K)
• Pendrith ($8K)
• Højgaard ($8.3K)
• Zalatoris ($7.9K)
• Adam Scott ($7.5K)
• Justin Rose ($6.4K)

PGA Tour Fantasy

• Starters: McIlroy, Morikawa (Captain), Højgaard, Pendrith
• Bench: Zalatoris, Finau

Final Predictions

• Winning Score: -10

Best Bet: Collin Morikawa Top 10 (+150).

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