20VC: Why Small Markets are Better Than Big Markets, The Biggest Delusion of Early Stage VC, Why AI Investing is like a Horserace and Why The Most Ambitious Companies Growing the Fastest are not the Best Investments with Adam Fisher, Partner @ Bessemer
Jan 22, 2024
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Adam Fisher, Partner @ Bessemer, shares lessons from his 27 years in venture capital. He discusses the importance of making multiple successful investments rather than relying on one big hit. He prefers to invest in outsider founders approaching a problem with fresh eyes and believes smaller markets are best. The speaker also explores the impact of pattern recognition in investing and the challenges of predicting successful outcomes in early-stage venture capital.
Investing in the most ambitious and fastest-growing companies doesn't guarantee success, as they often crash and burn. The real value in a company is often created in the last 12-18 months of its existence. Investors need to decide if they want to focus on one big success or multiple hits.
Having experience and pattern recognition helps investors identify potential pitfalls and avoid making certain mistakes. It allows them to recognize what won't work and save time. Experience also helps with analyzing founders and their fit with the investor and the company's stage.
Assessing market size is crucial, but it's not always about creating a new category from scratch. Starting in smaller markets or niche segments can provide opportunities for growth and expansion into adjacent sectors. Evaluating the potential to grow and evolve within the market is essential.
Deep dives
Importance of selecting the right companies
Investing in the most ambitious and fastest-growing companies doesn't guarantee success, as they often crash and burn. The real value in a company is often created in the last 12-18 months of its existence. Investors need to decide if they want to focus on one big success or multiple hits.
The role of experience in venture investing
Having experience and pattern recognition helps investors identify potential pitfalls and avoid making certain mistakes. It allows them to recognize what won't work and save time. Experience also helps with analyzing founders and their fit with the investor and the company's stage.
The challenge of market size and category creation
Assessing market size is crucial, but it's not always about creating a new category from scratch. Starting in smaller markets or niche segments can provide opportunities for growth and expansion into adjacent sectors. Evaluating the potential to grow and evolve within the market is essential.
Considerations in hiring and the importance of fit
When evaluating potential hires, understanding their temperament, ability to handle stress, and alignment with the company's stage and culture is key. Looking for signs of entrepreneurial mindset, risk-taking, and self-awareness can help in identifying the right fit for the company and its founders.
The Importance of Timing in Investing
Adam expresses the importance of timing in investing and the need to recognize when a company has peaked or is about to peak. He advises to either get out when things are not going well or to be patient and wait for the last 12-18 months when a majority of value creation occurs in a company's life. He also emphasizes the need to be ahead of the market and not to rely on being the third or fourth player in a market.
The Misalignments between Founders and Investors
Adam discusses the misalignments that can occur between founders and investors, particularly in later stages of funding. He highlights the challenges faced by growth stage investors when founders start selling secondary, which can create misalignment and disappointment for the growth investors. He also mentions the importance of understanding that late stage investors often prioritize getting their money back and may not be as focused on the founder's past efforts or personal financial gain. This can lead to tensions and misalignment in decision-making at the board level.
Adam Fisher is a Partner @ Bessemer Venture Partners and one of the most successful investors in Israel over the last two decades with seed investments in Fiverr, Wix, Melio, HiBob and more. Adam has now made over 60 investments and has had an incredible 23 successful exits. Adam has now been in venture for over 27 years having started his career at Jerusalem Venture Partners in 1996.
In Today's Episode with Adam Fisher We Discuss:
1. Lessons from 27 Years in Venture Capital:
How did Adam first make his way into the world of venture straight out of college?
Does Adam agree with Doug Leone that VC has changed from a "boutique, high margin business to a commoditized, low margin industry"?
What does Adam know now that he wishes he had known when he started in venture?
2. How to Pick Winners: 23 Exits in 60 Investments:
To what extent does Adam think pattern recognition is a good thing? When is it bad?
Does Adam prefer to invest in outsider founders approaching a problem with fresh eyes or insider founders who know the problem back to front?
Why does Adam believe that "category creation is BS"?
Why does Adam not like to invest in big, hugely ambitious markets? Why are smaller markets best?
3. The Deal: Mastering the Art of Negotiation and the Deal:
How does Adam reflect on his own relationship to price?
When doing an investment, does Adam think about who would do the next round?
How important is ownership to Adam? Does he want it all on first check?
Why does Adam not like to invest in hot AI rounds?
What have been Adam's single biggest investing mistakes? How did it change his approach?
4. Mastering the Art of Portfolio Management:
Why does Adam believe that it is impossible to know which of your portfolio will be the breakout winners early on?
How does Adam approach reserve allocations with this in mind?
How does Adam know when is the right time to sell a position?
What does Adam believe was the biggest sin of the zero interest rate environment period?
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