RJ Bell's Dream Preview Dream Podcast - CBB Final Four + NFL Season Win Totals
RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, Mackenzie Rivers and Scott Seidenberg talk CBB Final Four betting. RJ and wiseguy round table also discuss NFL season win totals and much more.
🎙️ Quote Analysis (By Timestamp & Speaker)
(0:00–3:30) — RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik
RJ introduces the podcast with excitement about discussing the Final Four and surprise at how the show transitions into NFL season win totals. He promotes a $20 for $100 betting offer and highlights recent betting successes of experts like Steve Fezzik (15–5 record) and AJ Hoffman (9–3).
(10:08–13:08) — Steve Fezzik, RJ Bell, Scott Seidenberg
Fezzik declares “Cinderella is dead,” citing a lack of upsets and close games. RJ agrees, noting Texas Tech's blown lead to Florida as the only dramatic game. Scott shares a key stat: favorites are 51–13 straight up, tying a historical record from 2007, with a clean 12–0 sweep in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8.
(13:08–15:25) — RJ Bell, Mackenzie Rivers, Steve Fezzik
RJ discusses how number one seeds often falter in the Elite Eight. Mackenzie notes the top four teams separated themselves by 5 points per KenPom stats, and Fezzik highlights Duke’s overperformance versus Houston’s struggle. RJ critiques public perception heavily favoring Duke despite Houston’s advantages, such as location and travel.
(33:47–34:27) — Scott Seidenberg
A powerful stat: Houston will be the ninth team to play a Final Four game in their home state. Seven of the previous eight teams won.
(34:27–36:56) — RJ Bell, Mackenzie Rivers, Steve Fezzik, Scott Seidenberg
Mackenzie explains travel fatigue: Florida had the second most travel miles, Auburn the least. This is the second largest travel gap since 2008. Florida faced extensive emotional strain, struggled against lower seeds, and entered the Final Four at a disadvantage. Fezzik criticizes coach inexperience and rotation issues, while Scott gives coaching edge to Auburn and Houston.
(40:50–44:00) — Scott Seidenberg, RJ Bell, Mackenzie Rivers, Steve Fezzik
A statistical gem: No 1 or 2 seed unranked in preseason has ever made the Final Four—now 0–41. Two examples: Michigan State and St. John's failed again. RJ and Mackenzie calculate how improbable that is: between 1 in 8,000 and 1 in 2 million. Fezzik adds Florida barely escaped the unranked category (ranked #21 preseason).
(1:55:39–1:57:12) — RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, Scott Seidenberg
NFL Over/Under win totals:
- Denver: Line set at 9.5, RJ thinks it’s high.
- New England: Line at 8.5, Steve thinks it’s too high, best bet is under 8.
- Raiders: 6.5 wins, Fezzik sees big upgrades at coach and QB—lean over.
- Parlay picks: Philadelphia, Detroit, Green Bay, San Francisco, Rams, Buffalo, Baltimore, Kansas City, Chargers — advised over bets.
- (2:00:11–2:01:36) — Mackenzie Rivers, RJ Bell, Scott Seidenberg
Mackenzie:
- Picks Denver Nuggets as his second-favorite team in the West (after OKC).
- Calls Jokic the best offensive player ever (scored 61 on 28 shots).
- Names Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Shea) as MVP: elite scoring, “plus defender,” best record in the league.
- Scott: OKC won 11 straight ATS. Fezzik/RJ caution that betting the top team post-All-Star historically loses.
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