Europe on Collision Course with Russia Over the Shadow Oil Fleet in Baltic

2026-01-29 | UPDATES #117 | Today, Europe just fired a legal warning shot across the bow of Russia’s “shadow fleet” — the aging, murky armada that keeps Putin’s oil money flowing, and increasingly turns the Baltic into a grey-zone battlefield. But stern words and legal warnings have never intimidated Putin before, in fact, he takes these as a sign of weakness, unless they are accompanied by action. Fourteen European coastal states say the basics of maritime safety are being shredded — by GNSS jamming, AIS manipulation, and sanctions-evading tankers that treat international rules like optional extras. And the subtext is clear: we’re done letting this fleet ghost through chokepoints uncontested. What did Europe announce? Are they claiming jurisdiction over the waters, or over the grey fleet? What are the conditions for interception? And does this make confrontation more likely? How far would Putin go to keep this economic lifeline going? ----------SUPPORT THE CHANNEL:https://www.buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtainhttps://www.patreon.com/siliconcurtain----------SOURCES: UK Government (26 Jan 2026) — “The growing risks to maritime safety” (open letter; signatories; UNCLOS Art 92; SOLAS/AIS/LRIT requirements) https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-growing-risks-to-maritime-safety/the-growing-risks-to-maritime-safetyFinnish Government / Ministry of Transport and Communications (26 Jan 2026) — Press release on the joint letter and GNSS interference - https://valtioneuvosto.fi/en/-/1410829/itameren-ja-pohjanmeren-rantavaltiot-gnss-hairinta-on-lisannyt-merenkulun-turvallisuusriskeja-1Denmark — Danish Maritime Authority (Jan 2026) — Notice referencing the open letterhttps://www.dma.dk/news/2026/january/coastal-states-warn-of-threats-to-maritime-safety-in-the-baltic-and-north-sea-regionERR (Estonia) (Jan 2026) — Summary of the warning and signatorieshttps://news.err.ee/1609924184/all-vessels-are-at-risk-14-countries-warn-shadow-fleet-vessels-to-follow-rulesMaritime Executive (26 Jan 2026) — Reporting and technical context on GNSS/AIS and the letterhttps://maritime-executive.com/article/european-nations-warn-shadow-fleet-shipowners-to-play-by-the-rulesgCaptain (Jan 2026) — Coverage framing the enforcement shift and compliance frameworkhttps://gcaptain.com/europe-signals-new-phase-in-shadow-fleet-enforcement/Insurance Journal (27 Jan 2026) — Coverage of the 14-nation warninghttps://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2026/01/27/855788.htmAtlantic Council (22 Jan 2026) — Analysis: shadow fleet as hybrid tool; argues for stronger interpretation/enforcement - https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/the-us-is-taking-action-against-russias-shadow-fleet-in-the-baltic-sea-europe-should-follow-suit/Emmanuel Macron on X (Jan 2026) — Public statement on French Navy boarding of a sanctioned tanker - https://x.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/2014341199507706242----------SILICON CURTAIN LIVE EVENTS - FUNDRAISER CAMPAIGN Events in 2026 - Advocacy for a Ukrainian victory with Silicon Curtainhttps://buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtain/extrasOur events of the first half of the year in Lviv, Kyiv and Odesa were a huge success. Now we need to maintain this momentum, and change the tide towards a Ukrainian victory. The Silicon Curtain Roadshow is an ambitious campaign to run a minimum of 12 events in 2025, and potentially many more. Any support you can provide for the fundraising campaign would be gratefully appreciated. https://buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtain/extras----------