The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens

Net Zero and Other Delusions: What Can't, Won't and Might Happen | Frankly 90

Apr 4, 2025

The discussion dives into the limits of human imagination and its impact on our future. It categorizes possibilities for achieving net zero emissions by 2050 into what can't, won't, and might happen. Various obstacles like technology and governance are highlighted, suggesting a pessimistic outlook on ambitious environmental targets. The conversation shifts to rethinking cultural expectations, advocating for practical, actionable strategies instead of lofty ideals. Ultimately, it encourages a more realistic approach to navigate the complexities ahead.

20:04

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Quick takeaways

Nate Hagens emphasizes the critical distinction between limitations imposed by physical laws and the practical hurdles of achieving ambitious goals like net zero emissions.

The podcast highlights the interconnectedness of social, financial, and environmental challenges, necessitating more pragmatic and adaptive approaches to future planning.

Deep dives

Understanding What Can't and Won't Happen

There are essential distinctions between what can't happen and what won't happen in the context of future possibilities. The category of 'can't happen' is limited by physical laws and historical precedents, such as the impossibility of turning a specific wooden block into something larger than its physical dimensions. Path dependence explains how certain past events block future possibilities, like the devastation left behind by a global thermonuclear war. On the other hand, 'won't happen' reflects scenarios that may be theoretically possible but are practically unfeasible due to various social, technological, and economic hurdles, exemplified by ambitious proposals like achieving net zero emissions by 2050.

Navigating the Limitations of Future Possibilities

18min

Rethinking Net Zero and Cultural Expectations

2min

Language is one of humanity’s most unique and powerful tools. We are amazingly good at imagining the pictures created through words - almost to the point that even the most fantastical things can seem real. But how might this extraordinary ability backfire as we try to chart the course for the 21st century?

In this Frankly, Nate explores the limitations of using our imaginations to shape our understanding of what's possible through the use of three categories: what can’t happen, what won’t happen, and what might happen. Nate demonstrates how this framework can be used by going through one example of the many hurdles standing in the way of humanity - as we currently consume today - reaching Net Zero carbon emissions by 2050.

How are today’s societal goals shaped by unrealistic expectations of what’s possible under our current biophysical reality? What ‘bottlenecks’ constrain the possibilities of the future, and how might these change our expectations and preparations for what’s to come? Finally, how can we use the logic of aggregate probability in our own lives to push the initial conditions of the future towards the best likelihoods for all life on Earth?

(Recorded April 1, 2025)

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