The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens Net Zero and Other Delusions: What Can't, Won't and Might Happen | Frankly 90
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Apr 4, 2025 The discussion dives into the limits of human imagination and its impact on our future. It categorizes possibilities for achieving net zero emissions by 2050 into what can't, won't, and might happen. Various obstacles like technology and governance are highlighted, suggesting a pessimistic outlook on ambitious environmental targets. The conversation shifts to rethinking cultural expectations, advocating for practical, actionable strategies instead of lofty ideals. Ultimately, it encourages a more realistic approach to navigate the complexities ahead.
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Categories of Impossibility
- 'Can't happen' events violate physical laws or path dependencies.
- 'Won't happen' events are technically possible but improbable due to aggregate low probability of necessary steps.
The Cheese Mouse
- Hagens uses the example of a 500-foot cheese mouse statue to illustrate the concept of 'won't happen'.
- It's technically feasible but practically impossible due to the combined low probability of all necessary steps.
Net Zero: A 'Won't Happen'
- Hagens argues that achieving Net Zero by 2050 is a 'won't happen' event.
- Multiple hurdles make its aggregate probability near zero, even if the technology exists.
