FiveThirtyEight Politics
Presidential Debates Do Matter
Sep 9, 2024
Jeffrey Skelly, a senior elections analyst, and Mary Radcliffe, a senior researcher, dive into the crucial dynamics of a nail-biting presidential campaign. They analyze the implications of the latest jobs report and discuss how voter sentiment towards the economy is evolving. With an upcoming debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, they explore the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates. The conversation uniquely highlights how debates can reshape polling data and engage younger voters, offering a mix of trivia and insightful analysis.
38:21
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Quick takeaways
- The upcoming debate is pivotal for candidates, particularly Harris, to directly address voter concerns and showcase their policies.
- Despite economic challenges, established voter sentiment suggests that unless a significant economic event occurs, opinions may remain unchanged.
Deep dives
Pre-Debate Dynamics
The upcoming debate between former President Trump and Vice President Harris is highlighted as a crucial moment in the election timeline, with Harris's support reportedly wavering since the convention. A significant portion of likely voters indicated they want to learn more about her, as 28% expressed curiosity about her policies, compared to a mere 9% for Trump. The debate represents a unique opportunity for voters to compare the candidates directly, potentially influencing their perceptions and choices. Historical precedents suggest that debates can have impactful short-term effects on voter sentiment, setting the stage for a dramatic cycle.
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