Forward Guidance The Great Ponzi-fication Of Markets | Weekly Roundup
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Jul 18, 2025 
Le Shrub, Chief Meme Strategist and author of Shrub Stack, discusses his barbell portfolio strategy and the 'Golden Age of Grift' thesis. He examines bond market dysfunction and why Ethereum is emerging as a high-yield asset. The conversation dives into risk scenarios, including potential yield shocks and the influence of private equity and crypto in 401(k)s to stabilize the system. With humor, Le Shrub critiques market behaviors, hedge fund strategies, and the challenges of investing in a rapidly shifting economic landscape.
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Le Shrub's GAG Portfolio Strategy
- Le Shrub's "GAG" portfolio captures the Golden Age of Grift, balancing emerging market assets with high-risk, frontier sector bets.
- He hedges both for potential dollar depreciation and market upside amid fiscal dominance and grifting policy environment.
Fiscal Dominance and Yield Curve Control
- US and global bond markets face fiscal dominance pressures with rising yields, prompting possible policy interventions like yield curve control.
- Central bankers act like "Tamagotchis," panicking when yields hit critical levels, prompting dovish measures to cap bond yields.
Firing Powell Risks Market Chaos
- Market reaction to the Trump trial balloon on firing Powell showed a 1% sell-off in bonds, equities, and the dollar.
- Actual removal of Powell would likely cause a bigger bond market shakeup and capital flight risk.
