The Wolf Of All Streets $1,000,000 Bitcoin & The Death Of The 4-Year Cycle | Arthur Hayes & Allan Marshall
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Oct 12, 2025 Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX co-founder, shares his audacious $1M Bitcoin thesis, attributing Bitcoin’s future more to fiat liquidity than traditional halving cycles. Allan Marshall, CEO of Upexi and a Wall Street veteran, discusses the saturated market of digital asset treasuries and the risks of leverage. The duo dissects the implications of monetary policy on crypto, arguing that government printing fuels potential market rallies, while cautioning about mismanagement. They analyze how regulatory clarity could affect institutional flows and the landscape of digital assets.
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Early DATs Showed Wild Price Swings
- Allan Marshall describes early DATs trading at extreme premiums then collapsing; Nakamoto fell to $0.90 after high initial pricing.
- He used those market moves to justify Upexi avoiding a crowded Bitcoin treasury market.
Volume Concentrates Premiums
- Dominant DATs will concentrate volume, making it hard for late entrants to compete.
- MicroStrategy sets the practical ceiling for market premiums among Bitcoin treasuries.
Prioritize Revenue And No Early Debt
- Use predictable, sustainable revenue (e.g., staking yield) to avoid forced sales of treasury assets.
- Prefer equity-funded treasuries over heavy initial debt to stay solvent in downturns.