The Lawfare Podcast Lawfare Archive: Ukraine, ATACMS, and Putin’s Nuclear Threats
Oct 24, 2026
Fabian Hoffmann, a University of Oslo researcher specializing in missile technology and nuclear strategy, examines Ukraine’s newly authorized long-range strikes inside Russia. He discusses ATACMS variants, battlefield targets, Russian logistics, delayed Western support, Washington’s escalation fears, Putin’s nuclear signaling, and the realities of missile stockpiles and production.
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Why Washington Lifted The Strike Restrictions
- The policy shift reflected both the U.S. election and North Korean involvement in Russia’s war effort.
- Washington saw third-party troops crossing a previously stated red line and acted before a less supportive administration took office.
Kursk Became Ukraine’s Bargaining Chip
- Allowing strikes around Kursk could help Ukraine retain Russian territory as leverage in possible negotiations.
- A frozen conflict becomes harder for Russia to accept while Ukraine still controls territory inside Russia.
What Makes ATACMS Different From Cruise Missiles
- ATACMS are fast aero-ballistic missiles suited to time-sensitive targets such as mobile air defenses, radars, artillery, and launchers.
- Cluster variants cover areas; unitary-warhead variants destroy pinpoint targets like depots and transportation nodes.