Jay Dobson, Energy & Utilities Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, discusses the current state of the US energy sector, oil prices, and the outlook for crude oil and natural gas. They also delve into the risks, trends, and opportunities in the energy transition, highlighting the importance of decarbonization and potential in carbon capture and biofuels. The chapter concludes by discussing the attractiveness of integrated oil companies and exploration companies in the current oil price environment.
Crude oil prices are expected to end the year around $91 per barrel with a trading range of mid-80s to mid-90s per barrel, while natural gas prices may rise to $3.10 per unit by year-end but revert back to below $3 per unit by the end of winter.
Several factors such as positive outlook for oil prices, steady growth in production, improved efficiency in operations, strong demand, and attractive valuations make the US energy sector a preferred investment option.
Deep dives
Outlook for Oil and Natural Gas Prices
Looking ahead, the podcast discusses a constructive view on crude oil prices, expecting them to end the year around $91 per barrel. However, the near-term outlook suggests a trading range of mid-80s to mid-90s per barrel. On the other hand, natural gas prices are more cautious due to high storage levels and a seasonal decline in demand. While prices may rise to around $3.10 per unit by year-end, they are expected to revert back to below $3 per unit by the end of winter.
Reasons to Favor the US Energy Sector
The podcast highlights several reasons for a most preferred view on the US energy sector. These include a positive outlook for oil prices, slow but steady growth in US oil and natural gas production, improved productivity and efficiency in drilling operations, resilient demand, strong capital discipline, and robust balance sheets. Combined, these factors contribute to an attractive valuation for the sector compared to the broader market.
Risks and Considerations in the Energy Sector
While the podcast maintains a generally positive outlook, it acknowledges certain risks and considerations. These include the potential impact of increased supply as Saudi Arabia and Russia normalize production levels, risks associated with economic downturns and demand fluctuations, potential public policy responses to high gasoline prices, and the need for ongoing capital spending. Despite these risks, the overall sentiment from industry conferences suggests a constructive tone, with evidence of subsiding inflation in oil field services and strong interest in energy transition opportunities.
Our conversation outlines CIO’s current thinking when it comes to the US energy sector, along with the current price outlook for both WTI crude oil and natural gas. We also spend some time discussing the risks to the sector, provide an update on the energy transition (a CIO longer-term investment theme), and where opportunities exist within the broader sector. Featured is Jay Dobson, Energy & Utilities Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
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