Macro Mondays Raoul Pal: What Happens If Trump's Dollar Playbook FAILS?
29 snips
Jan 13, 2025 
Raoul Pal, co-founder and CEO of Real Vision, shares his insights on macroeconomics and cryptocurrencies. He discusses the driving forces behind the current strength of the US dollar and its implications for global trade. The conversation delves into Trump's economic strategies, future monetary policies, and the role of liquidity in navigating economic challenges. Raoul also examines Bitcoin's potential as a liquidity tool, the recent retail sales boom, and the emerging troubles in the UK bond market, providing a comprehensive look at the financial landscape.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Dollar Strength as Leverage
- The strong dollar is driven by fears over Trump's new administration and tariff policies, mirroring the 2016-17 situation.
- This strength could be used in trade negotiations, offering a weaker dollar as an incentive for cooperation.
Dollar DĂ©jĂ Vu
- The current dollar index trend closely resembles the one after the 2016 Trump election.
- Trump might delay weakening the dollar to blame Biden, extending current market conditions.
Market Parallels and Bitcoin
- Global M2 and NASDAQ trends mirror those of 2016-17, influenced by a strong dollar.
- Bitcoin's price action might follow the 2017 pattern, potentially having bottomed out already.