Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik Presl #70 George Barros: The Real Problem Behind Russia’s 1 Million Casualties - And How It Changes the War
Jul 2, 2025
George Barros, who leads a team at the Institute for the Study of War, provides keen insights into the Ukraine conflict. They discuss the staggering implications of over one million Russian casualties and how this affects Russia’s military sustainability. Barros debunks the myth of Russia's infinite manpower, addressing the economic pressures challenging their war effort. He also contemplates the future duration of the war, pondering how Ukraine can sustain its fight against mounting pressures. This engaging conversation unravels the complexities of a war that shows no signs of ending soon.
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Ukraine War Remains Intense
- The war in Ukraine is ongoing and intense despite reduced mainstream media coverage.
- Russian forces are making small, slow tactical gains, with stable front lines and minimal chances of major breakthroughs.
Tactical Gains vs. Strategic Value
- Capturing Pokrovsk would be an operational setback for Ukraine but not strategically decisive.
- Chasiv Yar's fall to Russia seems inevitable but costs them heavily and offers limited strategic gain compared to Konstantinivka.
Russia's Strategic Message Objective
- Russia's strategic goal is to convince the West that their victory in Ukraine is inevitable to force negotiations.
- This narrative aims to secure territorial concessions Russia cannot achieve militarily within years.