Strong Source Episode 7 with Stephane Bernhard
Apr 12, 2024
Stephane Bernhard, a seasoned commodities trader and former Global Head of Trading at ETG Commodities, shares his rich expertise in the trading landscape. He discusses building a trading edge through technical analysis and his macroeconomic insights, shaped by freight trading. Stephane delves into the complexities of the 2023 market, outlining challenges faced by commodity traders. He emphasizes the value of uncertainty in trading, risk management, and the importance of respecting market signals, sharing memorable lessons from his career.
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Episode notes
Build Edge When Information Is Restricted
- Stephane Bernhard built his edge by combining technical analysis with logistics experience when he lacked central information access.
- He used coding and backtesting in the 1990s to turn price data into an evidence-based trading edge.
Macro Mapping With Two Variables
- Stephane maps macro into four quadrants using GDP growth and inflation rate-of-change to simplify macro views.
- Identifying the current quadrant (reflation, stagflation, deflation, Goldilocks) guides asset positioning across commodities.
Why Last Year Broke Trading Patterns
- Last year fiscal reflation in the US disrupted a deflationary drift and created a range-bound market that frustrated commodity trends.
- Range, suppressed volatility, and large gamma shorts made both breakout and mean-reversion strategies hard to trade.
