Gideon interviews historian and writer Lawrence Freedman about Israel's challenges in dealing with Hamas and finding a viable alternative government. They explore the recent security lapse on the Gaza border, compare the conflict to global crises, and discuss the potential consequences of Biden's lack of diplomatic victory.
Israel's current approach to dealing with Hamas involves degrading their capabilities, punishing Gaza, and increasing pressure on the ruling group, but there is no clear end point or negotiation process in sight.
Replacing Hamas in Gaza is challenging due to the absence of an obvious alternative and the lack of support and propitious circumstances for change, despite preferences for a different leadership.
Deep dives
Israel's Difficulty in Dealing with Hamas
Israel faces challenges in formulating a strategy for dealing with Hamas. They cannot achieve regime change or occupy Gaza, as it would regenerate the threat. Their current approach involves degrading Hamas capabilities, punishing Gaza, and increasing pressure on the ruling group. However, there is no clear end point or negotiation process in sight, as Hamas's demands primarily focus on easing the blockade and releasing prisoners. The situation may lead to a period of bombing followed by a mediated ceasefire.
Lack of Viable Alternatives to Hamas
Replacing Hamas in Gaza is challenging due to the absence of an obvious alternative and the deep roots of these groups. While some argue that it is no longer acceptable for Hamas to run Gaza or even exist, the reality is that occupation is not feasible, and a different regime lacks support and propitious circumstances for change. Therefore, despite preferences for a different leadership, there is currently no means of making it happen.
Escalation and Risks of Wider Conflict
The risk of a wider conflict in the region exists, especially considering Iran's connections to Hamas and Hezbollah. While a broader war could be avoided, escalating tensions and exacerbating issues like the closure of the West Bank could come with consequences. Israel may choose to declare that it has achieved enough, focus on securing the release of hostages, and address humanitarian concerns. The Israeli government also faces scrutiny and potential political consequences due to the security failures and divisions within Israeli society.
Gideon talks to the historian and writer Lawrence Freedman about what led to the catastrophic events of the past week in Israel and what options the Netanyahu government has to respond to Hamas's deadly attack. Clips: 11Alive; NBC News