Global Data Pod Global Data Pod Weekender: Identification in the time of front-loading
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Jun 6, 2025 Exploring the resilience of the global economy, the discussion highlights a blend of strong job growth and emerging weaknesses in manufacturing. Using a hurricane metaphor, the hosts navigate the mixed economic signals, balancing cautious optimism with looming recession risks. They delve into consumer behavior, emphasizing increased savings amidst uncertainty, and analyze the intricate relationship between inflation and purchasing power. The podcast offers insights into how regional conditions are shaping the economic landscape and what to watch for in the second half of 2025.
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Front-Loading Masks True Growth
- The first half of 2025 saw solid global growth driven by a mix of underlying resilience and front-loading effects.
- The second half faces drags from policy shocks and unwinding of this front-loading, especially in manufacturing.
Manufacturing Turning From Boom to Bust
- The economy is transitioning from a phase of tailwind-supported growth to facing headwinds, especially in manufacturing.
- Manufacturing PMIs suggest contraction ahead, signaling a shift to a weaker industrial sector.
Recession Risk Moderate but Real
- The risk of a US recession in 2025 is assessed at about 40%, balancing risks of softening growth without breaking sharply.
- Current data show some softening but no clear signs of recession yet.