Venezuela: Maduro's and the Opposition’s Strategies
Apr 4, 2024
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Jose Vicente Carr, an expert on Venezuelan politics, discusses Maduro's power consolidation strategies and the opposition's willingness to participate in the upcoming election. The episode explores Maduro's control tactics, the importance of a unified opposition, Maria Corina's strategic maneuvers, US-Venezuela relations, and the challenges faced by the Biden administration in engaging with Maduro.
Maduro aims to win by discouraging voting and obstacles to voter registration, banking on high abstention rates.
Venezuelan opposition faces challenges with disqualifications but eyes unity and strategic candidate selection for a credible challenge.
Deep dives
Maduro's Strategy to Ensure Victory
Maduro's strategy for the upcoming election in Venezuela involves discouraging people from voting to increase the chances of his victory. By creating obstacles for voter registration and aiming for high abstention rates, he believes he can secure a win. Unlike typical dictatorships that manipulate vote counting, the Venezuelan system, if minimally fair, poses a risk for Maduro's loss. This challenge pushes Maduro to weaken opposition support and prevent international scrutiny on election integrity.
The Opposition's Complex Dynamics and Presidential Candidate
The Venezuelan opposition faces challenges due to disqualifications of key figures like Maria Corina Machado from running in the election. Despite internal divisions and disqualifications, new candidate Manuel Rosales emerges as a potential contender with a history in Venezuelan politics. Rosales garners attention and speculation, with indications of a possible collaboration with Machado looming. The opposition's unity and strategic candidate selection remain crucial for posing a credible challenge to Maduro.
International Engagement and US Policy Stance
International involvement, including dialogues with various governments and the Biden administration, plays a significant role in addressing Venezuela's political situation. While sanctions relief was tied to the election's fairness, reports suggest the US may maintain some relief despite doubts on election integrity. The Biden administration faces complex decisions balancing humanitarian concerns, oil sector interests, and immigration issues. The shifting dynamics emphasize the importance of international actions in influencing Venezuela's political landscape.
The Venezuelan dictatorship is preparing to hold an election on July 28th. Despite signs that the race will not be free or fair, the opposition is willing to participate. In this episode, we dive into the motives and tactics on both sides. What is Maduro looking for, and is there a real chance he could lose? What is going on behind the curtains with the opposition – why are they willing to participate, how divided is this, and who are the members likely to support? Our guest is Jose Vicente Carrasquero, a mathematician and political scientist who teaches at Miami Dade College.
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