Trump and the Middle East, With Steven A. Cook (Transition 2025, Episode 2)
Nov 12, 2024
auto_awesome
Steven A. Cook, a senior fellow at CFR and expert on Middle Eastern politics, joins to dissect reactions from the region to Trump’s electoral win. He shares insights on how countries like Israel and Saudi Arabia view Trump's return with optimism, while also touching on Iran's muted response. The discussion navigates the evolving U.S.-Egypt relationship and the implications of the Abraham Accords. Cook emphasizes the delicate balance of U.S. foreign policy amid regional tensions and the future of U.S.-Middle East dynamics.
Middle Eastern countries, particularly Israel, reacted positively to Trump's election, anticipating stronger U.S. support and collaboration.
The potential for renewed U.S.-Middle East relations under Trump hinges on balancing historical alliances and addressing evolving regional political dynamics.
Deep dives
Reactions from the Middle East to Trump's Election
Countries in the Middle East largely reacted positively to Donald Trump's election victory, particularly Israel, which expressed relief and optimism for stronger United States support. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was notably quick to congratulate Trump, signaling a desired collaboration moving forward. Regional leaders from Saudi Arabia and the UAE also publicly welcomed Trump, reflecting a preference for his administration's approach over previous administrations that they felt were less favorable. In contrast, countries such as Iran displayed a more reserved attitude, reflecting their longstanding adversarial relationship with the U.S.
The Future of U.S.-Middle East Relations
The potential for renewed U.S.-Middle East relations under Trump centers on a balance between America's historical alliances and the evolving political landscape in the region. Leaders in the Gulf states gain comfort from Trump's perceived toughness on Iran, especially following a history of dissatisfaction with the U.S. approach under past presidents. Additionally, stability appears to be at the forefront of these nations' interests, with partners like Saudi Arabia feeling secure under Trump's leadership. This dynamic suggests an inclination toward strengthening ties as they perceive Trump's administration will prioritize their strategic concerns more effectively.
Challenges of the Two-State Solution
The two-state solution remains a contentious topic with heightened skepticism surrounding its viability under Trump's administration. Despite expressing interest in a deal, the conditions laid out by Trump previously were seen as heavily favoring Israel, resulting in rejection from Palestinian leadership. There is an ongoing concern that Trump’s inclination to support Israeli expansion may exacerbate tensions, particularly with ongoing conflicts in Gaza. The complexity of the situation is underscored by the expectations that Trump may seek to broker a deal without committing to any specific framework.
Impact of the Abraham Accords and Regional Dynamics
The Abraham Accords, a significant achievement of Trump's first term, have continued to show momentum amid changing regional relations, especially between Israel and Gulf nations. Despite challenges and public sentiment opposing Israeli actions in Gaza, trade and dialogue between signatory nations have flourished. Efforts are underway to potentially expand normalization discussions to include Saudi Arabia, although the recent conflict has complicated these negotiations. This dynamic reflects a shift in power toward Gulf countries and highlights their active role in shaping regional diplomacy.
Steven A. Cook, the Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies at CFR, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss how Middle Eastern countries are reacting to former President Donald Trump’s election victory and his potential policy for the region. This episode is the second in a special TPI series on the U.S. 2025 presidential transition and is supported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.