The Julia La Roche Show #270 David Rosenberg: Nobody Sees the Recession Coming - But It's Already Here
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Jul 1, 2025 
David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research, shares his insights on the looming recession that many overlook. He highlights alarming indicators, like the Fed's own recession probabilities and a negative GDP in recent months. Rosenberg critiques the disconnect between soaring stock prices and a faltering housing market, suggesting a growing risk of economic turmoil. He warns that complacency could lead to significant consequences, urging listeners to reconsider their investment strategies amidst this uncertainty.
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Market Rallies Amid Economic Uncertainty
- The economy is facing elevated policy uncertainty but many tail risks like trade war or fiscal cliff have been reduced.
- Stocks rallied 24% due to removed risks, but housing markets are starting to crack, indicating economic disarray.
Signs of Hidden Recession
- Survey data suggests the economy is contracting at around a 1% annual rate.
- Real GDP has been negative sequentially in two of the past three months, implying a possible unseen recession underway.
Complacency Masks Rising Recession Odds
- Recession odds today are higher than in 2022 despite widespread complacency.
- Nobody is talking about recession, which is concerning given market and economic signals indicating otherwise.