Abortion Access Gains in Red America (with Kate Shaw)
Nov 11, 2024
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In this conversation, Kate Shaw, a Constitutional law professor at the University of Pennsylvania and co-host of Strict Scrutiny, dives into the recent ballot measures on abortion rights. She discusses the surprising support for expanding abortion access in conservative states like Missouri and Florida. Shaw also explores the differences in state versus federal amendment processes and the implications for future reproductive laws. Finally, they analyze how these developments could impact the landscape of abortion rights under a potential second Trump presidency.
The recent election results show a significant public demand for abortion access, with notable successes in protecting rights across various states.
Despite some victories for abortion rights, the potential for federal overrides casts uncertainty on state-level protections and future reproductive rights.
Deep dives
Impact of the Dobbs Decision on State Ballot Measures
The recent Dobbs decision has directly influenced a surge in abortion rights measures appearing on state ballots, allowing states to exercise more autonomy in regulating abortion following the overturning of Roe v. Wade. With the Constitutional protections removed, many states quickly moved to put abortion-related questions on ballots, reflecting a response to increased public interest and demand for either restricting or protecting abortion access. For instance, in states like Kansas, measures to restrict abortion rights failed, indicating strong public support for maintaining access to abortion. This pattern continued during the midterm elections, with four different states successfully voting to enshrine abortion protections in their constitutions.
Voter Sentiment Revealed in Recent Elections
The voting patterns observed across states in the recent elections reveal a complex relationship between individual voter preferences and broader political affiliations. Notably, in Florida, over 57% of voters supported amending the constitution to protect abortion rights, despite Donald Trump winning the state by a similar margin. This demonstrates a slight disconnect where voters prioritize protecting abortion access while simultaneously supporting a conservative presidential candidate. Additionally, states like Missouri, which has strict abortion laws, went on to support measures protecting abortion rights, indicating a growing divergence between voters' views on reproductive rights and their party affiliations.
The Complex Dynamics of State and Federal Law
The conversation around state-amended abortion rights highlights a critical misunderstanding of the interaction between state and federal law. Legislative measures passed in states can be overridden by federal action, which remains supreme under the Constitution. For example, should Congress enact a federal ban on abortion, it would take precedence over any state-level protections, regardless of the decisions made by state voters. This reality raises concerns that voters may not fully grasp the implications of their decisions and the potential for their rights to be restricted at the federal level, undermining the protections they thought were secured.
Future Considerations for Abortion Rights
The evolving political landscape suggests that while there are victories for abortion rights supporters, the future remains uncertain and patchwork across different states. The rejection of attempts to further restrict abortion rights in conservative states like Missouri and Florida provides some hope, but the potential for future ballot measures remains, exerting localized pressure for either protections or restrictions. Key states like Arkansas may see renewed efforts to initiate ballot measures focused on abortion rights, especially given the recent political momentum. However, without a nationwide consensus or protections directly safeguarding reproductive rights federally, the landscape remains fragile and unpredictable, leaving many to wonder how these rights will fare in the coming years.
In this year’s election, abortion protection measures were on the ballot in ten different states. While they succeeded in seven, they failed in three. So where does that leave the future of abortion access? This week, Preet speaks with University of Pennsylvania constitutional law professor and co-host of Strict Scrutiny Kate Shaw. They break down the most notable ballot measures and what abortion rights may look like under a second Trump presidency.
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