What's next for Syria after Assad, with Beirut-based journalist and author Kim Ghattas
Dec 14, 2024
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Kim Ghattas, a Beirut-based journalist and Middle East expert, dives into the recent collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. She discusses the rapid unravelling of an authoritarian rule that lasted decades, shedding light on the staggering human cost of the conflict. Ghattas examines the complex geopolitical landscape, highlighting how Iran, Russia, and Israel are maneuvering for influence in the vacuum left behind. She also emphasizes the importance of a Syrian-led transition and the critical role of U.S. foreign policy in ensuring stability in the region.
The unexpected collapse of Assad's regime resulted from regional distractions and depleted support from Iran and Russia, leading to rebel victories.
Syria's future reveals a complex interplay of hope for new governance amidst uncertainties and potential chaos due to geopolitical influences.
Deep dives
Collapse of Assad's Regime
The rapid collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria, which had maintained a tight grip on power for over five decades, has left many surprised. A combination of regional distractions faced by key supporters, including Iran and Russia, contributed to this unexpected turn of events. This includes the depletion of resources and focus on other conflicts, particularly Russia's involvement in Ukraine, which weakened their ability to provide support to Assad when he faced growing rebel opposition. The regime's forces, exhausted from years of civil war and lacking morale, ultimately chose to abandon Assad, leading to a quick victory for rebel groups.
International Players and Their Roles
Both Iran and Russia have historically played critical roles in supporting Assad's regime, but their recent disengagement raises questions about their future influence in Syria. As their military support faltered due to their commitments elsewhere, it became increasingly evident that their reliance on Assad was weakening. The situation highlights Iran's vulnerability, as its ambitions in the region are now challenged by the impact of the regime's fall on its alliances. Despite their efforts to retain influence through new engagements with a transitional government, the strain on both countries might lead to a resurgence of chaos, enabling them to exploit the evolving dynamics.
The Path Forward for Syria
The fall of Assad opens a new chapter for Syria, filled with both hope and uncertainty. The Syrian populace expresses a willingness to embrace new governance structures, even including Islamist factions, as they seek to escape decades of oppression. This sentiment is underscored by the desire for a fresh start and the hope that regional powers, alongside international actors like the United States, will support a peaceful transition. However, the potential for chaos looms, with uncertainties about how new governing bodies will address the needs of the people and manage regional dynamics, necessitating a nuanced and supportive international approach.
How did Syria’s government rule with an iron fist for five decades, only to collapse in two weeks? And after 14 years of bloody civil war, why was now the moment that a frozen war exploded into the global spotlight? The cost Syrians have already paid is greater than any nation could reasonably be expected to bear. Since 2011, more than 500,000 Syrians have died, including 200,000 civilians, and nearly six million refugees flooded neighboring Arab States and some European nations, most notably Germany.
But what comes next? Nature abhors a vacuum, and so does geopolitics. Iran, Russia, Israel, the Gulf states, and the United States all have vested interests in Syria's future, a country that this week's GZERO World with Ian Bremmer Podcast guest calls "the crown jewel" of proxy influence in the Middle East. Here to help make sense of these shocking past few weeks and the potential power vacuum to come is Kim Ghattas, a contributing editor at the Financial Times and author of Black Wave.