The rise of a leaderless world: Why 2025 marks a turning point, with Francis Fukuyama
Jan 11, 2025
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Francis Fukuyama, a prominent political scientist from Stanford, joins the discussion to analyze the impending G-Zero world of 2025. He emphasizes the dangers of a leaderless global landscape, where power dynamics could devolve into chaos. Fukuyama highlights the importance of fostering trust among leaders amidst rising tensions with China and evolving alliances, such as Russia's partnerships with North Korea and Iran. He also critiques the erosion of liberal democracy in the U.S. and the prioritization of results over procedural norms in modern politics.
The transition to a GZERO world signals a future where global leadership is absent, resulting in a competitive environment dominated by self-serving actors.
The declining influence of the United States complicates international relations, fostering a potential alignment between authoritarian regimes like China and Russia against established global norms.
Deep dives
The Emergence of a GZERO World
The lack of a dominant global power has given rise to a GZERO world, where no single entity can effectively lead or maintain international order. This year is predicted to exacerbate existing geopolitical risks, resulting in a landscape where the strongest actors pursue their own interests, often at the expense of the vulnerable. The concept of returning to a 'law of the jungle' highlights the dangers of self-serving actions by states, corporations, and individuals, foreshadowing instability and uncertainty in international relations. The reliance on might over multilateral cooperation raises concerns about the long-term sustainability of global governance.
The Changing Role of the United States
The United States has historically functioned as an exporter of stability and a promoter of a liberal world order; however, this role is now diminishing. The discussion points to an emerging trend where the U.S. might prioritize its own interests rather than adhere to established global norms. This shift could lead to decisions that echo the more nationalistic and self-interested approaches of countries like China, raising questions about whether a new competitive paradigm is unfolding. An internal crisis of political division within the U.S. complicates its ability to exert influence, leaving allies uncertain and more vulnerable to global shifts in power.
Impacts of Global Realignment on Democracy
The podcast highlights the growing alignment between China and Russia as both nations navigate and respond to U.S. policies, especially under the influence of leaders favoring a more authoritarian approach. Potentially heading towards a Cold War dynamic, the discussion casts doubts on the ability of smaller nations to assert themselves amid this geopolitical fragmentation. Meanwhile, the erosion of liberal democracy, driven by both extreme ideological positions and proceduralism, threatens the very foundation of democratic governance. The desire for tangible results in addressing societal issues could lead citizens to favor less democratic methods if they perceive that established processes fail to deliver effective solutions.
On the GZERO World Podcast, we’re taking a look at some of the top geopolitical risks of 2025. This looks to be the year that the G-Zero wins. As longtime listeners will know, a G-Zero world is an era when no one power or group of powers is both willing and able to drive a global agenda and maintain international order. We’ve been living with this lack of international leadership for nearly a decade now. But in 2025, the problem will get a lot worse. We are heading back to the law of the jungle. A world where the strongest do what they can while the weakest are condemned to suffer what they must. And the former—whether states, companies, or individuals—can't be trusted to act in the interest of those they have power over. It's not a sustainable trajectory. But it’s the one we’re on. Joining Ian Bremmer to peer into this cloudy crystal ball is renowned Stanford political scientist Francis Fukuyama.