The Julia La Roche Show #284 Melody Wright: We're In An Insane Housing Bubble Fueled By Speculation That's Worse Than 2008
Aug 28, 2025
In this discussion, Melody Wright, an insightful analyst and author of M3 Melody Substack, delivers a stark warning about the current housing market's instability. She outlines how speculative investment is driving a bubble even worse than 2008, with owners interested in profits rather than homeownership. Wright highlights the difficulties faced by first-time buyers, including a significant rise in mortgage fraud and the implications of upcoming changes to FHA loan programs. She also shares hopeful trends emerging in specific markets, like North Carolina.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Builder Overbuild And Price Inversion
- Builders overbuilt new homes after the inventory narrative, creating excess supply that pressures existing-home sales.
- New-home incentives and buydowns effectively lower new-home prices, undercutting used-home demand.
Housing Driven By Investors Not First-Timers
- First-time homebuyer participation is at record lows, signalling the market is driven by investors rather than owner-occupiers.
- That structural shift makes housing more sensitive to investor economics than household housing needs.
Post‑GFC Flip And Short‑Term Rental Push
- After the GFC, institutions and media encouraged buying foreclosures, flipping and renting, which popularized investor activity.
- During COVID banks and advisers pushed short-term rentals as lucrative, even where that cash flow was unrealistic.