The Odd Years Here's what two top reporters will be watching in NJ and VA on Election Day
Oct 28, 2025
Chaz Nuttycombe, founder of State Navigate, and Joey Fox, a reporter for the New Jersey Globe, dive into the upcoming elections in Virginia and New Jersey. They discuss how local issues and voter turnout will serve as indicators for future midterm elections. Chaz shares insights on shifting voter dynamics in Virginia, while Joey reveals why New Jersey races are more competitive than anticipated. The conversation highlights key demographics, polling trends, and what to watch for as voters head to the polls.
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Virginia Poll Paints Broad Democratic Edge
- State Navigate's Virginia poll shows Spanberger leading by double digits in the governor's race and Democrats leading the House generic by 12 points.
- The poll signals Democrats hold advantages across statewide races but the attorney general contest is notably tighter.
Turnout Shifts By Election Quarter Matter
- Virginia turnout patterns shift across the four-year election cycle and the midterm/gubernatorial year typically favors the out-party of the president.
- Pollsters who model 2025 electorates on 2024 behavior risk misestimating turnout and results.
Attorney General Race Could Buck Ticket Trends
- The attorney general race tightened after revelations about candidate Quinn Jones' past texts and aggressive advertising against him.
- If the Republican pulls a meaningful share of Spanberger voters or they skip the attorney general ballot, Mieras could win despite Democrats leading other statewide races.