The Odd Years

Chaz Nuttycombe, founder of State Navigate, and Joey Fox, a reporter for the New Jersey Globe, dive into the upcoming elections in Virginia and New Jersey. They discuss how local issues and voter turnout will serve as indicators for future midterm elections. Chaz shares insights on shifting voter dynamics in Virginia, while Joey reveals why New Jersey races are more competitive than anticipated. The conversation highlights key demographics, polling trends, and what to watch for as voters head to the polls.

Lis Smith, a seasoned Democratic strategist and former adviser to Pete Buttigieg, dives into her party's current identity crisis. She argues that Democrats face significant messaging and branding challenges while comparing today's anti-establishment feelings to the Tea Party. Smith advocates for a big-tent approach to move beyond damaging litmus tests. She also critiques the lack of strong leadership and emphasizes the need for bold ideas as the party braces for upcoming elections. Her insights spark hope for fresh candidates by 2026.

Heather Long, Chief Economist at Navy Federal Credit Union and former Washington Post correspondent, discusses the current economic landscape under Trump's second term. She highlights a K-shaped recovery where the wealthy flourish, while middle-income families struggle. Long delves into the uncertain impact of tariffs and inflation on household budgets. She also shares insights on AI's disruption to the job market, emphasizing the risks for new graduates. The conversation underscores the fragility of economic growth relying on the top tier.

We took a late summer break, but we're back with a new slate of really great interviews! When we started this year, redistricting was not something we thought would be driving our politics this cycle. But, of course, that's no longer the case with Texas unleashing a domino effect of redistricting efforts across the country.Thankfully, we know someone really well who can help us understand what's happening: The Cook Political Report's very own David Wasserman.If you follow Dave on X, you know him as Redistrict.Redistricting itself is a topic Dave's been fascinated with for a very long time. He was pouring over maps and congressional data as a kid, which we talk about in this conversation. (It's pretty adorable.) Now as one of the most trusted sources in the country on congressional maps, we literally can't think of anyone better to help us navigate this complicated and unprecedented mid-cycle redrawing of districts.We recorded this conversation on Thursday, September 11th.Check out our CPR 2025-2026 Redistricting Tracker: https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/redistricting/2025-2026-redistricting-tracker-how-many-seats-could-flip-0You can watch part of the conversation our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@thecookpoliticalreportSign up for our free weekly newsletter, In Brief: https://www.cookpolitical.com/in-brief-sign-upInterested in subscribing to CPR? Go to: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe.Listeners can use the discount code"ODD10" to save 10% on any subscription. This offer is available only to new subscribers.

Back in 2023, Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini wrote a book that laid out a path for how the party could win future elections with a working class multiracial coalition.Later that year, Amy talked with Patrick on this very podcast where they discussed whether Trump could expand his base to include those voters of color. Well, as we saw, he did. In fact, in 2016, the coalition that elected Trump was 88% white. By 2024, it was down to just 78% white.So we wanted to have Patrick Ruffini back on for a conversation about how well that same coalition is holding up six months into Trump 2.0, whether these voters will show up for Republicans in 2026, and whether the next Republican nominee for president will have a similar appeal these voters.Patrick is a partner and pollster for Echelon Insights and writes a great Substack, The Intersection.Also, a quick programming note: we are taking a bit of a summer break in August, but never fear! We'll be back in September with new episodes of The Odd Years. You can watch part of the conversation our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@thecookpoliticalreportSign up for our free weekly newsletter, In Brief: https://www.cookpolitical.com/in-brief-sign-upInterested in subscribing to CPR? Go to: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe.Listeners can use the discount code"ODD10" to save 10% on any subscription. This offer is available only to new subscribers.

This week we are diverging from our normal Odd Years format to introduce you to another Cook Political Report product, Editors Roundtable.This podcast features a rotating cast of our Cook Political Report team breaking down the latest news, analysis and insights about the most important House, Senate and Gubernatorial contests in the country. We like to think of this podcast as an opportunity for you to get the behind the scenes access to the conversations we are having at our weekly Cook Political Report editorial meetings. This week, our talented colleagues talk about the most interesting and consequential state in the 2026 midterms: Michigan. The Wolverine state has it all; a three-way gubernatorial contest featuring the former Democratic Mayor of Detroit, who is running as an Independent; competitive primaries for one of the most competitive Senate races in the country, and a slew of critical House contests that could determine control of Congress next year. And, we can’t have a conversation about Michigan without using a mitt (in this case our Managing Editor’s own oven mitt), to help illustrate where each important congressional district and key cities are located in the state. That “U” shape between the thumb and index finger, that’s Detroit, BTW. We hope you enjoy this episode. And, more importantly, if you do like it, and to hear more of it, subscribe to the Cook Political Report where you can get the kind of deeply sourced, non-partisan and accurate analysis of every race up in 2025 and 2026. Go to: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe. Listeners can use the discount code"ODD10" to save 10% on any subscription. This offer is available only to new subscribers. You can also get Editors Roundtable for just $1.99 a month on Apple podcast.Read Jessica on Michigan's open Senate seat here: https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/michigan-senate/republicans-aim-avoid-messy-michigan-senate-primary-may-not-getRead Erin's 2026 House analysis here: https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/michigan-house/2026-michigan-house-analysis-democrats-fight-upper-hand

Most of the political attention these days is centered in D.C, but there's a pretty fascinating primary contest happening just a train ride north in New York City. The Democratic primary for mayor of the Big Apple features a crowded field of Democrats, including some well known names like former Governor Andrew Cuomo, who was forced to resign after multiple sexual harassment allegations against him in 2021, and some new names like New York State Representative Zohran Mamdani, a Democratic Socialist who has little experience politically but a knack for social media. He also happens to have the support of another young, well known New York City liberal, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez.In some ways, this race is very New York City with storylines that could only happen there. In fact, the New York Times asked the all- important “what's your bagel order” question. But there are also shades of the tension in national Democratic politics between the more pragmatic and more progressive wings of the party happening in this race.Plus, Donald Trump, an outsized influence in and on the city, is a big factor here as well. To make sense of it all, I sat down with Nick Fandos, who's covering every twist and turn of this race for The New York Times. He's the city's politics and government reporter.Early voting has already started, and the primary is on Tuesday, June 24th. We recorded this conversation on Wednesday, June 18th.You can watch part of the conversation our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@thecookpoliticalreportSign up for our free weekly newsletter, In Brief: https://www.cookpolitical.com/in-brief-sign-upLearn more about The Cook Political Report: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe

President Trump's signature legislation, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, is crawling its way through Congress. Having passed the House by a single vote, the so-called BBB is in the Senate where various Republican factions - the fiscal hawks, the centrists, the populists - are divided over how to resolve their many competing priorities over the national debt, Medicaid, and tax cuts to name a few.What's driving these ideological differences among Senate and House Republicans? What role has Trump played and will he play in continuing to lobby Congress? And will the BBB move fast enough to be on President Trump’s desk by July fourth? (Spoiler alert: it will not.) Amy put all these questions to Leigh Ann Caldwell, chief Washington correspondent for Puck.A quick note: we recorded this conversation on Wednesday, June 4th, as the Elon Musk and President Trump breakup was beginning, but before it burst into the full view. And it appears the falling out has been driven, at least in part, over Musk's opposition to the Big Beautiful Bill. But as Amy has said, she doesn't believe this changes the calculus for Congressional Republicans. You can watch part of the conversation our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@thecookpoliticalreportSign up for our free weekly newsletter, In Brief: https://www.cookpolitical.com/in-brief-sign-upLearn more about The Cook Political Report: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe

When we booked this episode with Pod Save America co-host Dan Pfeiffer several weeks back, our plan was to talk about the Democrats and their strategy and messaging around Trump - something Dan's been writing about for his Substack, Message Box. Should Democrats just focus on the economy? Should they raise alarm bells over deportations? How loudly and strongly should they push back against Trump?And we do discuss that, but as it turned out, there was a lot more to talk about with Dan. For one, as a former Obama senior adviser, Amy wanted to ask his thoughts on the new reporting coming out about Joe Biden's health and how his inner circle worked to conceal it. In addition to that, we received an important report from the data firm Catalist about 2024 voters, shedding more light on why Kamala Harris lost and Donald Trump won. As a fellow data nerd, I knew Dan would be ready to dive into it.We recorded this on Wednesday, May 21st.You can watch our entire conversation on our YouTube channel.Sign up for our free weekly newsletter, In Brief: https://www.cookpolitical.com/in-brief-sign-upLearn more about The Cook Political Report: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe

Rahm Emanuel has held many titles: Congressman from Illinois, DCCC Chairman, Chief of Staff to Barack Obama, Mayor of Chicago, and Ambassador to Japan under President Biden.These days, he doesn't have an official position at the moment. But that's not stopping him from giving some very pointed advice to Democrats on every possible platform: cable TV, political shows, podcasts, late night TV, and different political conferences.So how does Rahm Emanuel think Democrats should be responding to Trump 2.0? How does the party recover from 2024 and prepare for 2028? What does a successful midterm strategy look like in 2026? And given his own, let's say, active media schedule, what are his own plans for the future?He came on to talk to Amy about all that.We recorded this conversation on Wednesday, May 14th. Sign up for our free weekly newsletter, In Brief: https://www.cookpolitical.com/in-brief-sign-upLearn more about The Cook Political Report: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe