The Odd Years

Way back in the late 1990s, Cook Political Report founder Charlie Cook had an idea to rank all 435 congressional districts by their partisanship - in other words, whether a district is more Republican or more Democratic.That way, we'd be able to see, at a quick glance, which members of Congress represented districts that were either slightly or strongly partisan. For example, is a certain Republican representative in a very solid Republican seat…. or in one that is only slightly red… or even one that was blue or blue leaning?Thus was born the Cook PVI, which stands for Partisan Voting Index. And since 1998, CPR has released a new addition every two years.This admittedly very geeky undertaking is also something we get really excited about because it cannot only tell us the partisanship of every district, but with more than 25 years of data, we can see how districts have shifted over the years. The person behind the Cook PVI and how it all works is David Wasserman, The Cook Political Report’s senior editor and elections analyst.We invited him on to explain what the Cook PVI is, how we calculate it, what we learned from it for 2025, and what it may tell us about elections in 2026. We recorded this conversation on Wednesday, April 9th. Sign up for our free weekly newsletter, In Brief: https://www.cookpolitical.com/in-brief-sign-upRead Dave’s Cook PVI analysis: https://www.cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/introducing-2025-cook-partisan-voting-index-slightly-depolarizing-electionLearn more about The Cook Political Report: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe

On the last podcast, Amy talked with Chauncey McLean, head of the Democratic super PAC Future Forward, about their media strategy for Kamala Harris and why things didn't work out as they had hoped.For this podcast, we turn to the ad strategy of the Trump campaign with John Brabender, the chief creative officer for the media company BrabenderCox.John was hired as Trump's ad consultant in early 2023 and worked with him throughout the entire campaign. He had incredible access to and input from Donald Trump about the ad making process and strategy, which he shares with us here in colorful detail - like what it's like to work on the Trump campaign and, specifically, to work with the president when putting these messages and ads together. We also wanted to talk to John about whether the lessons he learned working for Trump could translate to non-Trump candidates and Republican downballot candidates who have to run in the 2026 midterms.This conversation was recorded on Wednesday, April 2nd.

Back in the 2012 cycle, Chauncey McLean was a young staffer on the Obama campaign working in the newly developing field of data analytics.Six years later, McLean put those data science skills - and the ones he developed while working in the private sector testing ads for commercial products - to work as head of the Democratic super PAC, Future Forward.Most outside super PACs like these do an extensive amount of polling and survey work and bring in multiple outside advisers to help manage and produce campaign ads and other material. What makes Future Forward unique is the tremendous amount of survey data and ad testing that they do. Its team of data scientists surveyed millions of voters and tested thousands of ads with the goal of finding and airing the ads that moved the needle the most with the voters.During 2024, the group poured more than $600 million dollars into ads that supported first Joe Biden and then Kamala Harris' campaign for president.At the end of the day, the Trump campaign's advertising and media strategy was more successful, particularly his ability to connect with younger men via social media platforms like podcasts and YouTube. As the Democratic party struggles to find its footing, we wanted to talk to Chauncey McLean about what he learned from Harris' loss and how Democratic groups like his are adapting to this fractured media environment going forward.We recorded the conversation on Wednesday, March 19th. To learn more about The Cook Political Report go to: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe.

We've been wanting to have Terrence Woodbury on the podcast for a long time.The reason is that he's a pollster who has done some amazing work with demographic groups that made a big difference in the presidential race last year, but also in previous cycles: Black voters, voters of color, and younger voters.And if many Democrats were surprised by the erosion in support among what they thought was a reliable Democratic base, Terrence has been observing this slide for years -- particularly among men of color, a group he calls the new swing voter. As a pollster to the Kamala Harris campaign, he and his company HIT Strategies, had a front row seat to how voters felt about Harris, Donald Trump, and the Democratic party as a whole.So we wanted to ask Terrance to discuss the results of the 2024 election, but also look forward to what he's hearing now from voters with Donald Trump in office and what he thinks the Democratic response should be to the Trump era.Terrence Woodbury is cofounder and president of HIT Strategies which is a public opinion research firm. We recorded this conversation on Wednesday, March 12. To learn more about The Cook Political Report go to: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe

Last year, as March Madness kicked into gear, there was one athlete everyone seemed to be talking about: Caitlin Clark. The then University of Iowa guard was on her way to leading her team to the NCAA finals, selling out stadiums everywhere she went and creating an unprecedented level of excitement around women's basketball. This interest followed her to the WNBA when she signed with the Indiana Fever.Our guest, USA Today sports columnist Christine Brennan, is writing a book about Caitlin Clark called On Her Game, which tells the story of Clark's rise to become the most famous female team sport athlete in history.Christine has been a long-time chronicler and advocate for women in sports. She's also deeply interested in politics and has a keen understanding and appreciation for how sports and politics intersect.We wanted to have Christine on to help tell the story of how laws like Title IX helped pave the way for a phenom like Caitlin Clark. And we also wanted Christine to reflect on where we are today when it comes to politics, sports and gender.These three topics have always been intertwined in our culture, but the Trump era has brought it to a different level. In Trump’s first few weeks in office alone he appeared at the Super Bowl and signed an executive order banning transgender athletes from competing in women’s athletics. We also had Canadians booing the U.S. national anthem at an international hockey game in response to Trump's tariff threats as well as his references to annexing our northern neighbor.Christine Brennan is an award-winning national sports columnist for USA Today. She's a commentator for CNN, ABC News, and PBS NewsHour. Her book about Caitlin Clark is available right now for preorder on Amazon. It will be available wherever books are sold in early July.Pre-order Christine Brennan's book: https://www.amazon.com/Her-Game-Caitlin-Revolution-Womens/dp/1668090198Learn more about The Cook Political Report: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe

This is a special episode in your podcast feed. You are about to hear a recent edition of Editors Roundtable, our Cook Political Report podcast where our team of editors trades behind-the-scenes analysis and dives into the weeds on races and elections. If you're a political junkie - and chances are high that you are if you're listening to this - subscribe to Editors Roundtable today in Apple podcasts for just $1.99 a month. You can also listen by subscribing to the Cook Political Report. On this episode, Amy Walter, Erin Covey, and Matthew Klein take a look at our new 2026 House Race Ratings. They go over why these ratings look they way they do right now and explain why they will change over the next 21 months before election day. They also talk about which races they had disagreements over. In two cases, those races fell in districts that have been moving to the right.To read about our 2026 House Race Ratings and see where each race stands go to: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe

Few people in Washington have shaped the political media ecosystem like Chuck Todd. Amy first met Chuck more than 25 years ago when he was the editor of what was then one of the most innovative news media disruptors of its time - The Hotline. The Hotline was political media's first aggregator using the breakthrough technology of the 1990s - the fax machine - as a way to get and distribute local media coverage of campaigns and elections.After helming that publication for years and seeing it through the Internet era, Chuck went over to a more traditional media institution, NBC News. But he brought his entrepreneurship with him, starting a daily MSNBC show that was modeled in many ways on The Hotline style of bringing campaigns and elections to the center of the conversation.He became a household name in 2014 when he took the role of moderator on Meet the Press. He helped expand the footprint of the show to include a daily program, a podcast, and a blog.He stepped down from that role in 2023 and recently announced he would leave NBC News.Covering Washington looks a lot different now than when Chuck first started out, and he has had a front row seat to all of these changes. So we wanted to talk to him about political journalism today, covering Trump 2.0, and his own plans for what might come up next. We recorded this conversation on Wednesday, February 12th.

Molly Ball, Senior Political Correspondent for The Wall Street Journal and author of a biography on Nancy Pelosi, shares her astute insights on the tumultuous start of Trump's second term. She highlights the stark contrasts with 2017, including loyalty shifts within the GOP. The discussion dives into how intentional disruptions are reshaping governance, the new dynamics in the Republican Party, and the importance of political stories in understanding these changes. Molly also reflects on her journalistic journey and the evolving role of figures like Pelosi in contemporary politics.

In this discussion, Daniel Cox, Director of the Survey Center on American Life, dives into the striking gender divide among Gen Z voters. He reveals how social media algorithms expose young men to toxic messages, influencing their political leanings towards figures like Trump. The conversation also touches on shifting attitudes toward masculinity and the implications of historical events on young people's views. Cox emphasizes the importance of empathy and civic engagement to address conflicts and foster connections in a divided generation.

We started The Odd Years in 2023, which was both a literal odd numbered year, and also a political odd year; a year when there were no national elections. But Amy enjoyed these conversations so much - and so did you - that we kept going into 2024 even though it was an even year. We just couldn’t help ourselves. As we head into another odd year, we are ready to launch the third season of The Odd Years. As many of you have noted, our title has a few layers of meaning. Odd describes so much happening in our world now, and we'll get into that with our guests. What's making the times we live in interesting, unpredictable, surprising?Amy will talk to people who live and breathe politics (like ourselves) and plenty who do not. So be sure to follow and listen in.