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The Fourth Plenum and China’s Evolving Economic Strategy: A Conversation with Dr. Elizabeth Economy

Nov 20, 2025
Dr. Elizabeth Economy, a Hargrove Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and former senior advisor for China at the U.S. Department of Commerce, dives into the key implications of China's Fourth Plenum. She discusses Beijing's push for technological self-reliance, the challenges of local competition leading to overcapacity, and China's evolving trade strategies with the U.S. Economy also highlights the risks posed by global pushback and demographic shifts, as well as the strategic missteps surrounding rare-earth controls. Expect insights into the future of China-U.S. relations!
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INSIGHT

China's Retaliatory Trade Playbook

  • China developed a robust retaliatory toolkit and refused to bow in trade talks with the U.S..
  • Beijing leveraged U.S. single-source dependencies to maintain bargaining power.
INSIGHT

Plenum Doubles Down While Flagging 'Involution'

  • The Fourth Plenum largely doubled down on Xi's existing economic model, especially tech self-reliance.
  • A notable new focus was on 'involution' and the damaging race-to-the-bottom competition in tech sectors.
ANECDOTE

Local Rivalry Created Massive Overcapacity

  • Local and provincial competition led to hundreds of overlapping firms, like 200+ EV makers and 58 satellite makers.
  • That produced overcapacity which China exported, prompting global pushback and harming nascent industries abroad.
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