Emergency Edition: Iran attacks Israel – what next?
Apr 15, 2024
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Prof Ali Ansari discusses Iran's drone attacks on Israel, potential escalation into regional war, Netanyahu's strategy, and Iran's desire for peace. The podcast explores the dynamics of the conflict and calls for restraint to prevent devastation.
28:55
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Quick takeaways
Iran's attack on Israel was driven by a credibility gap in Tehran's rhetoric and actions.
Iran's deep-seated animosity towards Israel stems from the Islamic Revolution's stance against its existence.
Deep dives
Iran's Attack on Israel: Analysis by Ali Ansari
In the podcast episode, Ali Ansari, Professor of Modern History at the University of St Andrews, discusses Iran's attack on Israel. Ansari suggests that the attack was not inevitable but was driven by a growing credibility gap between Iran's rhetoric and actions on the ground. Despite varying perspectives on the attack's success, Ansari acknowledges the political will displayed by Iran. He further highlights Iran's struggle in controlling the narrative surrounding the attack and the potential implications for internal Iranian politics.
Iran's Ideological Enmity towards Israel
The episode delves into Iran's deep-seated ideological enmity towards Israel, rooted in the Islamic Revolution's foundational stance against the existence of the Israeli state. While Iran aims to perpetuate the conflict in Gaza to weaken Israel, it also seeks to control the terms of engagement. The discussion underscores the complexities of Iran's motivations and the strategic implications of openly engaging in hostilities with Israel.
Regional Dynamics and State Fragility in Iran
The podcast sheds light on the geopolitical dynamics following the conflict escalation between Iran and Israel. It points out the subdued responses from neighboring entities like Hezbollah and the absence of widespread protests in Iran, signaling potential vulnerabilities in the Iranian regime. The conversation extends to Iran's internal challenges, including institutional weaknesses, popular discontent, and the regime's ability to withstand shocks. Perspectives on Iran's regional alliances and the uncertainties surrounding its political and economic stability are also examined.
Iran’s drone attacks on Israel, in retaliation for an Israeli strike on its embassy in Damascus, shocked the world this weekend. Israel’s divided war cabinet is considering a response, the US has warned it will not take part in a counteroffensive, and world leaders fear an escalation into regional war. But will it really happen?
Gavin Esler speaks to expert on the Iranian regime Prof Ali Ansari of the University of St Andrews about whether a weak and isolated Teheran really wants war, Netanyahu’s calculus, the balance of power… and whether Iran’s claim that “the issue is concluded” is as much a prayer as a statement.
Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production