HousingWire Daily Logan Mohtashami: What if we get no rate cuts this year?
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Jul 18, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst at HousingWire, shares his insights on housing market dynamics and economic indicators. He discusses what could happen if the Federal Reserve doesn't cut rates this year, emphasizing the relationship between mortgage rates and economic performance. Mohtashami delves into the resilience of the current economy despite perceptions of weakness and analyzes the impact of labor market dynamics on economic growth. His expert perspective also covers mortgage rate trends and their implications for market stability.
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No Rate Cuts If Economy Outperforms
- If inflation picks up but the economy outperforms, the Fed may not cut rates in 2024.
- This creates a scenario where bond yields and mortgage rates stay elevated rather than fall.
Mortgage Spreads and Rate Stability
- Mortgage spreads improving are crucial because mortgage rates are near yearly lows around 6.65%.
- Without rate cuts, rates may stay near current levels with yields between 4.35% to 4.70%.
Labor Market Has Mixed Signals
- Private payrolls have been slowing for 18 months, offset by government job growth.
- Labor force growth decline keeps unemployment low even though private sector hiring is weaker.