Which companies will suffer with globalization’s reversal?
Jan 17, 2025
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Isaac Stone Fish, CEO of Strategy Risks and expert in geopolitical analysis, dives into the seismic shifts in global trade dynamics as Trump returns to power. He reveals Ford's deep ties with China and contrasts that with Tesla's success in the electric vehicle race. The discussion highlights how U.S. corporations must navigate tense U.S.-China relations while managing risks and reassessing partnerships in a volatile landscape. Fish also emphasizes the evolving role of chief risk officers amidst these challenges, particularly in industries like biotech.
The reversal of globalization under Trump's leadership will fundamentally challenge U.S. companies that heavily rely on Chinese supply chains.
The biotech industry's increasing dependency on Chinese manufacturing raises critical concerns about supply chain resilience and national security over time.
Deep dives
The Impact of U.S.-China Relations on Global Trade
The evolution of U.S.-China relations is crucial for understanding contemporary global trade dynamics, particularly against the backdrop of a looming change in U.S. leadership. The recent announcement of a record trade surplus by China highlights its centrality in global supply chains, prompting other nations to rethink their economic strategies. The podcast discusses the shift in both Democratic and Republican views toward globalization, with increasing emphasis on domestic manufacturing and protecting American jobs. This reflects a growing sentiment among lawmakers that past approaches to trade may have disadvantaged American workers, signaling a potential shift in future policy directions.
Evaluating U.S. Companies' Dependence on China
Isaac Stone Fish's Strategy Risks analyzes the interdependencies of major U.S. companies with China, evident in their SR250 ranking that identifies companies with significant Chinese exposure. Notably, Ford topped this list, revealing deep entanglements through partnerships with state-owned enterprises in China. This dependency reflects broader trends within the automotive sector, where companies are compelled to engage with China to maintain market access. Such entanglements may pose risks as the geopolitical landscape evolves, influencing how these companies navigate their future business strategies.
Risks in the Biotech Sector Related to China
The biotech industry faces increasing scrutiny over its reliance on Chinese manufacturing, particularly concerning pharmaceuticals and biologics. Despite currently having lower exposure than other sectors, the podcast warns that this could change as competition intensifies and China’s capabilities grow. The interconnectedness with Chinese institutions raises alarms about the political underpinnings of scientific partnerships, given the Communist Party's significant influence over research and development. As U.S. companies navigate potential future pandemics, understanding these dependencies is critical to ensuring a resilient supply chain.
Defensive Risks and Supply Chain Challenges
The defense sector, traditionally seen as a bastion of U.S. security, reveals surprising levels of exposure to China, as companies like Raytheon's parent, RTX, rank high on the SR250 list. With significant portions of revenue linked to China, the implications for national security are profound, raising concerns about the dual-use nature of many technologies. The potential for conflict between shareholder interests and U.S. defense priorities is becoming increasingly apparent, as these companies grapple with the consequences of engaging with a rival superpower. Ultimately, the need for a reassessment of relationships with defense contractors is critical in light of the shifting geopolitical landscape.
The Washington Consensus of the past few decades that called for open markets, free trade and reduced regulation will officially die on Monday as Trump re-takes the presidency with a radically different economic program. Free trade is out and tariffs are in; globalization is dead and national sovereignty is the rule of the day. Such a change has massive implications for companies all around the world, many of whom have designed their corporate strategies for a global world. Who is affected, particularly when it comes to U.S.-China relations in the years ahead?
That’s where Isaac Stone Fish comes in. He’s the CEO and founder of Strategy Risks, a data and research company that helps companies and regulators understand and reduce alternative forms of risk. He’s particularly noted for his China expertise, and his firm publishes the SR250 ranking, which highlights the largest American companies with the deepest ties with China, encompassing everything from financing and supply-chain interlinkages to public communications.
Fish joins host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner to talk about Trump’s imminent arrival, why Ford is the most China-entwined company in the U.S., how China overtook the U.S. in electric vehicles, why American defense contractors are surprisingly engaged in China trade, why we might already be at war with China, how CEOs are managing these new strategic risks and finally, what the biotech and social media industries must do going forward in a more fractured world.