This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

Islamic State – How global chaos is bringing terror back

Dec 4, 2024

In a deep dive into global terrorism, Charles Lister, a Middle East Institute expert on ISIS, and Ryan O’Farrell, a senior analyst at the Bridgeway Foundation focused on ISIS in Africa, unpack the group's alarming resurgence. They discuss the shift in ISIS tactics, rising attacks, and the dire situation in Syrian detainee camps. The conversation also highlights ISIS’s expanding influence in Africa and the challenges faced by local populations. With complex insurgent dynamics and dwindling Western support, there's a pressing need for renewed international attention.

44:39

Episode guests

Ryan O'Farrell

Charles Lister

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Episode notes

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Quick takeaways

Despite losing territorial control, ISIS is strategically repositioning and escalating its activities in populated areas of Syria and beyond.

The dire conditions of prisons housing former ISIS fighters are exacerbating the humanitarian crisis, potentially breeding future extremism and complicating counterterrorism efforts.

Deep dives

The Resurgence of ISIS

Despite the defeat of ISIS's territorial control, the group continues to pose an active threat both in Syria and globally. Recent developments show a surge in ISIS activities, particularly in Syria where the operational tempo is expected to double in 2024, while attacks in northeastern Syria could triple. This resurgence is attributed to a lack of stability and the chaotic environment that enables recruitments and daring attacks against well-defended positions. The shift in operational focus from the central Syrian desert to more populated areas suggests that ISIS is strategically repositioning itself to exploit vulnerabilities in military and governance structures.

Intro

3min

Resurgence of ISIS: Global Threats and Challenges

13min

The Evolution of ISIS: A Shift in Strategy and Structure

3min

The Islamic State's Expanding Influence in Africa

5min

The Evolving Structure of the Islamic State Central and Its Global Financing

2min

Insurgency Dynamics in Africa

14min

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This year marks a decade since ISIS hit the headlines with their dramatic rise to power in Iraq. It would be easy now to think it is a thing of the past. But in 2024 the group is having a resurgence in Syria, has a presence across Africa, and has morphed into a worldwide operation.

With multiple wars and a new phase of global disorder upon us, has the West forgotten about countering the threat of ISIS?

Emma Beals assesses the state of ISIS worldwide and the foreign policy response to its continued threat with Charles Lister, director of the Syria and Countering Terrorism & Extremism programs at the Middle East Institute, and discusses their presence in Africa with Ryan O’Farrell, senior analyst at the Bridgeway Foundation and the co-author of The Islamic State in Africa: The Emergence, Evolution, and Future of the Next Jihadist Battlefront.

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Written and presented by Emma Beals. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production.

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