More or Less: Behind the Stats Is the UN underestimating the global fall in fertility?
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May 24, 2025 Discover the unexpected trends in Argentina's rapidly declining fertility rates and the implications for global population predictions. Dive into the challenges the UN faces in forecasting future fertility, especially when historical data shows significant drops. Explore the phenomenon of below-replacement fertility and how it complicates current demographic models. The discussion raises critical questions about whether we are entering an era of ultra-low fertility rates and the potential consequences for humanity.
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Odd UN Fertility Graph
- The UN's fertility graph for Argentina shows a sharp drop in fertility that suddenly levels off at the projection point. - This odd pattern raises questions about the UN potentially underestimating global fertility decline.
Fertility Below Replacement Causes Decline
- Fertility below two children per woman leads to population decline over time. - UN predicts world population will peak around 10.3 billion in the 2080s then decline due to fertility trends.
UN Uses Historical Fertility Trends
- UN projections rely primarily on historical fertility trends, not complex societal factors. - Predicting economic, social, or cultural influences on fertility adds too much uncertainty and lacks sufficient data.