Caitlin Welsh, Director of CSIS' Global Food and Water Security Program, discusses Russia's strategic use of food as a weapon in Ukraine, impacting global food security and political relations. Topics include targeting Ukraine's agriculture, Russia's tactics to undermine exports, and Ukraine's resilience amidst conflict.
Russian attacks on Ukraine's agriculture impact global food security by reducing exports and increasing food prices.
Russia strategically uses food exports to vulnerable countries in Africa to gain political leverage amid conflict and global unrest.
Deep dives
Impact of Russia's Targeting on Ukraine's Agriculture Sector
Russian attacks on Ukraine's agricultural production and transport infrastructure have significantly reduced its farmed area, leading to a decrease in production and exports. Targeting of fields through munitions and landmines has caused visible scars of abandoned farmland along the front lines. The war has caused Ukraine's wheat exports to drop by 11% and corn exports by 15%, making it the most mined country globally and impacting global agriculture markets.
Global Food Security Impacts and Manipulation by Russia
The Ukrainian conflict has caused the greatest military-related disruption to global agriculture markets in a century due to decreased Ukraine production and exports. High food prices persist globally, affecting around 30% of the poorest countries' populations. Russia's manipulation of food exports to vulnerable countries in Africa to strengthen relationships showcases its strategic usage of food supply for political leverage and influence amid the conflict.
Political and Economic Gains for Russia Amidst EU Disunity
Russia benefits politically and economically from EU disunity over the Ukrainian conflict, as it diverts financial support for Ukraine, threatens unified EU backing for Ukraine, and sows disunity among EU nations. By supplying significant wheat exports to key regions like the Middle East and North Africa, Russia maintains its market shares, exploits disunity to its advantage, and uses food supply to sway global relationships and geopolitical influence.
For the past two years, CSIS’ Global Food and Water Security Program directed by Caitlin Welsh has analyzed the impacts of Russia’s war in Ukraine on global food security and on Ukraine’s agriculture sector and has shed light onto the ways that agriculture and food are central to Russia’s military strategy in Ukraine and its political strategy for expanding influence around the world. Caitlin joins the podcast to discuss these issues.
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