Global Macro Update
US-China Trade War—Round 2
Nov 15, 2024
Shehzad Qazi, Managing Director at the China Beige Book, gives a compelling analysis of the looming second US-China trade war, asserting a 100% probability by 2025. He discusses the implications of China's staggering trillion-dollar trade surplus and what it means for global economies. As China faces significant economic challenges, Qazi explores India's rise as the next big player in the market. The conversation also delves into the escalating geopolitical tensions around Taiwan, drawing parallels with the evolving dynamics in the region.
26:18
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Quick takeaways
- The probability of a U.S.-China trade war escalating to full force by 2025 highlights the critical interplay between political change and economic relations.
- China's struggle with demographic challenges and a slow transition to a consumer-driven economy signals potential long-term economic instability and growth issues.
Deep dives
Imminent U.S.-China Trade War Predictions
There is a strong consensus that a second U.S.-China trade war is on the horizon, with predictions for 2025 stating that the likelihood of this conflict is essentially at full probability. Analysts express concerns regarding potential tariffs, with figures such as Donald Trump proposing significant increases. As the political landscape shifts, discussions about tariffs are becoming more urgent, indicating a potential for immediate actions upon the inauguration of new leadership. The focus on tariffs not only highlights trade relations but also underscores the intricate balance of economics and politics between these two global powers.
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