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NAB Morning Call
Payrolls, Paris and OPEC+
Dec 5, 2024
Rodrigo Catril, NAB’s market economist and strategist, shares insights on the U.S. non-farm payrolls report and its implications for the Fed's monetary policy. He discusses how upcoming CPI data could shift rate cut expectations. The political landscape in France is also unraveling, with tensions rising post-confidence votes and Macron's strategic hesitations. Additionally, OPEC+ maintains a cautious approach to oil production, reflecting the uncertain global demand. Catril’s analysis ties together these economic threads with implications for international markets.
16:14
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Quick takeaways
- U.S. non-farm payrolls data is crucial for assessing the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategy, particularly regarding potential cuts amid inflation concerns.
- The political instability in France, exacerbated by Macron's delayed decision on a new prime minister, casts doubt on the region's economic recovery prospects.
Deep dives
Impact of Non-Farm Payrolls on Fed Rate Decisions
Non-farm payrolls are crucial in determining the Federal Reserve's approach to interest rate cuts, particularly in light of the anticipated job growth figures. The market expects a healthy increase of around 218,000 jobs, which would indicate a strong labor market, potentially discouraging the Fed from making rapid cuts. In addition, average hourly earnings are projected to slightly decline from 4% to 3.9%, which suggests ongoing inflationary pressures. The general consensus remains that while a December rate cut is on the table, it is contingent upon strengthening economic indicators, especially concerning employment and inflation.
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