#91: How pre-seed investors evaluate startup moats in the AI era | Itamar Novick (Founder & General Partner @ Recursive Ventures)

Jan 5, 2026

In this discussion, Itamar Novick, Founder and General Partner at Recursive Ventures, shares insights from his extensive experience in early-stage investing. He explores how startup moats are evolving in the AI era, emphasizing the importance of defensibility right from inception. Itamar highlights traditional moats like network effects and argues that velocity is now a critical signal for investors. He also advises founders on choosing the right investors and building strong communities as a form of defensibility, urging product leaders to adapt to the AI landscape.

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INSIGHT

Moats Matter Early In AI Era

Founders must articulate why they are ahead today and will stay ahead in five years to avoid commoditization.
Without a moat, AI enables dozens of clones overnight that erode market share and margins.

INSIGHT

Classic Moats Still Work

Classic moats remain powerful: marketplaces, SaaS velocity, and network effects drive durable advantage.
These moats created the trillion-dollar winners of the cloud and SaaS era.

ADVICE

Prove Team, TAM, And Data

Show execution proof, complementary team DNA, and founder resilience when fundraising.
Provide tangible data or examples that demonstrate superiority, especially for AI data-driven products.

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What actually makes a startup defensible anymore, especially when anyone can build a product overnight with AI?

In this episode of Supra Insider, Marc Baselga and Ben Erez sit down with Itamar Novick, founder of Recursive Ventures and longtime operator-turned-investor, to unpack how moats are changing in the AI era and what founders (and senior product leaders) need to internalize if they want to build enduring companies.

Itamar draws from over 25 years across product leadership, company-building, and early-stage investing to explain why defensibility matters earlier than most founders think, how traditional moats (marketplaces, SaaS velocity, network effects) still apply, and why AI radically compresses time-to-competition. He breaks down how Recursive Ventures evaluates teams, TAM, and moats at the pre-seed stage, why velocity has become a core signal, and how the venture model itself is being reshaped by smaller teams, faster execution, and lower capital requirements.

The conversation also goes deep on founder decision-making: how to choose early investors, why community itself can be a moat, what good vs bad VCs look like when companies fail, and why product leaders should seriously consider jumping into AI-native environments, even if it means a short-term step down.

If you’re a product leader thinking about founding a company, advising startups, or staying relevant in the next decade, this episode offers a clear, opinionated framework for navigating what’s changed and what still matters.

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Interviewing at Uber, Figma, Stripe, or DoorDash?

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In this episode, we covered the following topics:

* (05:34) Itamar’s path from VC to operator and back, and why credibility matters in early-stage investing

* (09:45) Why Itamar looks for moats even at pre-seed

* (12:50) Classic pre-AI moats: marketplaces, SaaS velocity, and network effects

* (19:21) How Recursive Ventures evaluates Team, TAM, and Moat at inception

* (21:44) Vibe coding and the collapse of traditional barriers to entry

* (26:38) How AI breaks traditional venture math, and why seed investing benefits

* (30:07) How founders should choose their first investors

* (34:49) Three types of VCs: helpers, neutral capital, and destructive investors

* (44:13) How much to raise at pre-seed and what that capital is actually for

* (51:10) Hiring for leverage: why AI-native mindset matters more than tenure

* (54:27) Why working at AI-native companies compounds long-term career value

* (57:23) Sales, distribution, and personal brand as differentiators

* (1:00:25) How PMs can build sales and founder muscles intentionally

* And more!

Links:

* Startup Anti-patterns by Itamar Novick: https://www.itamarnovick.com/category/anti-patterns/

* Itamar Novick: https://www.linkedin.com/in/itamarnovick/

* Itamar’s X: https://x.com/Itamar_Novick

* Recursive Ventures: https://www.recursiveventures.com/

* Marc: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marcbaselga/

* Ben: https://www.linkedin.com/in/benerez/

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