Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez Ep. 238: Rory Johnston on Oil to $65, Middle East Risks and Trump Agenda
Oct 18, 2024
In this discussion, Rory Johnston, an oil market researcher and founder of Commodity Context, delves into the nuances of the oil market for 2024. He highlights the impact of Middle East conflicts and Saudi supply adjustments on global prices. Johnston also analyzes the surprising decline in Chinese oil demand due to economic shifts and geopolitical factors, as well as the implications of U.S. oil policy amidst these dynamics. His insights provide a fascinating glimpse into the forces shaping the future of oil markets.
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Rory Johnston's Unconventional Path to Oil
- Rory Johnston's career path into the oil industry was non-traditional, starting with a philosophy major.
- His interest in oil sparked after reading "The Prize" by Daniel Yergin, leading him to a career in commodity research.
OPEC's 2023 Strategy
- OPEC's 2023 strategy involved multiple production cuts to support oil prices, aiming for high nineties to low triple digits.
- This strategy faltered due to factors like China's demand shift and the sustained growth of US shale production.
Current Oil Market Outlook
- Current oil market fundamentals suggest an undersupply, with Brent prices around low 80s.
- However, anticipated oversupply in 2025 due to OPEC's planned production increases is creating bearish pressure.