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Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Ep. 238: Rory Johnston on Oil to $65, Middle East Risks and Trump Agenda

Oct 18, 2024
In this discussion, Rory Johnston, an oil market researcher and founder of Commodity Context, delves into the nuances of the oil market for 2024. He highlights the impact of Middle East conflicts and Saudi supply adjustments on global prices. Johnston also analyzes the surprising decline in Chinese oil demand due to economic shifts and geopolitical factors, as well as the implications of U.S. oil policy amidst these dynamics. His insights provide a fascinating glimpse into the forces shaping the future of oil markets.
55:45

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • Rory Johnston emphasizes that OPEC struggles to manage oil prices amid external pressures, leading to ongoing production cut challenges.
  • The rise of non-OPEC oil producers like Guyana and Brazil signals a pivotal shift in the global oil market dynamics.

Deep dives

Rory Johnston's Journey into Commodities

Rory Johnston's path to focusing on commodity markets was unconventional, beginning with a major in philosophy before transitioning to political science and international relations. His fascination with commodities, particularly oil, sparked from reading Daniel Yergin's 'The Prize,' which highlighted historical geopolitical ties to oil supply chains. After completing his graduate studies, Johnston initially pursued a career in security and counterterrorism before shifting into the economics department at Scotiabank, where he spent six years managing commodities research. This journey culminated in the founding of Commodity Context, allowing him to specialize in oil and refined products.

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