
Unusual Whales Unusual Whales Pod Ep 17: First FOMC of 2023, Powell and disinflation, and the January 25 bps rate hike with experts
Feb 1, 2023
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Transcript
Episode notes
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Introduction
00:00 • 2min
Welcome Back, Last Bear
01:33 • 2min
The First FOMEC Meeting of 2023
03:15 • 3min
FedWatch - Is 25 Bips Too Little?
05:54 • 2min
Are the Markets Being Overly Optimistic?
07:54 • 2min
The Fed Is in a Tough Spot
09:46 • 3min
Do You Think a Decade of Persistently High Inflation Is Possible?
12:43 • 2min
Is the Fed Getting Burnt by Predicting What's Going On?
14:19 • 3min
What's the Chance of a Soft Landing?
17:20 • 4min
The Probability of a Soft Landing
21:30 • 2min
The Core of the Opportunity in Trading Markets Right Now
23:01 • 2min
Is the Fed Going to Start Cutting Rates in the Near to Medium Term?
25:30 • 2min
Is the Fed a One-Demand Bank?
27:45 • 2min
Is the Fed Really Communicating Outcome Probabilities in a Way That Influences Financial Conditions?
29:24 • 3min
Is There a Soft Landing in the Bond Market?
32:05 • 2min
Is the Yield Curve Inversion a Harbinger of a Recession?
34:05 • 4min
How Do Rates and Bonds Correlate With Market Volatility Conditions?
37:55 • 4min
Federal Funds Borrowing - Is There a Friction?
41:48 • 2min
Federal Home Loan Banks Have Extra Cash
43:51 • 2min
The Fed's Losses Are the Private Sector Gains
46:14 • 3min
The Fed's Dual Mandatory
49:20 • 3min
The Balance of Focus Is Shifting More Away From Inflation
52:45 • 4min
The Fed's QT Framework
57:13 • 4min
The Fed's QT Dilemma
01:01:15 • 3min
Do You Have Any Preliminary Comments?
01:04:24 • 3min
The Fed Is Announcing a Pandemic of Inflation
01:07:33 • 2min
The Debt Ceiling Debt Debt Crisis and QT So I'm Just Going to Add Another Point Um
01:09:03 • 2min
Bob Gem What Are Your Initial Thoughts?
01:11:08 • 2min
Is the Pandemic Language Changing?
01:13:05 • 2min
Is the Fed Just Presuming Hawkishness?
01:14:59 • 2min
What's Going on in the Markets Right Now?
01:16:50 • 2min
The Housing Price Index During the Covid Pandemic
01:19:11 • 4min
The Housing Market and Inflation
01:23:35 • 3min
Goldilocks Is the Worst Case Scenario Soft Landing
01:26:13 • 3min
Last Bear Any Closing Comments Anything Left to Plug?
01:28:44 • 2min
The Devil's Already in the Details
01:30:17 • 3min
