

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Who to scapegoat when trade deals are done?'
4 snips Jul 23, 2025
The recent US-Japan trade deal introduces a hefty 15% tariff on Japanese goods, impacting everything from cars to steel. The complexities of trade agreements often leave consumers and businesses in a tricky spot. Meanwhile, the discussion shifts to how economic policy often leads to scapegoating of foreign entities during downturns. Political stagnation and external pressures also play a role in shaping market dynamics, especially with upcoming midterm elections looming.
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Trade Deal Tariffs & Delays
- The US-Japan trade deal imposes a 15% tariff on US buyers of Japanese products including autos, with steel still taxed at 50%.
- Implementation lags behind deal announcements, causing delayed effects on US consumers until 2026.
Trade Deals Reduce Business Uncertainty
- Trade deals reduce uncertainty, prompting US firms to clarify investment and hiring plans.
- The critical economic impact depends on firms' reactions to this new clarity.
Scapegoat Economics & Trade Deals
- Scapegoat economics means someone must be blamed when economic fear rises.
- Universal trade deals reduce foreign scapegoats, but future blame of foreigners remains possible if the economy worsens.