Unchained

Does Grayscale’s Win Against the SEC Mean a Spot Bitcoin ETF Will Be Approved? - Ep. 539

Sep 1, 2023
This week, Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, dives into Grayscale's recent legal victory against the SEC and its implications for a spot Bitcoin ETF. He discusses why the approval likelihood has surged from 50% to 75% and the potential influx of investment that could follow. Eric unpacks the SEC's possible responses, the competition among major firms like BlackRock and Fidelity, and how a spot ETF could serve as a bridge for Baby Boomers into the crypto world.
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INSIGHT

Spot Bitcoin ETF Likelihood

  • Grayscale’s win against the SEC increases the likelihood of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval.
  • The court’s decision, language, and bipartisan nature significantly impacted this outlook.
INSIGHT

Spot vs. Futures ETFs

  • Approving Bitcoin futures ETFs while denying spot Bitcoin ETFs seems inconsistent.
  • Spot ETFs offer a safer, more direct investment compared to futures or trusts like GBTC.
INSIGHT

Roll Costs of Futures ETFs

  • Bitcoin futures ETFs can lag behind spot prices due to "roll costs."
  • These costs arise from selling expiring futures contracts and buying newer ones.
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