Rational Security: The “Scare Them When They’re Young” Edition

Jan 15, 2026

Guest

Ariane Tabatabai

In this discussion, Tyler McBrien, Michael Feinberg, and Ariane Tabatabai dive into pressing national security issues. Ariane sheds light on the unrest in Iran, detailing its economic roots and the regime's brutal crackdown, with casualties estimated in the thousands. Michael critiques the U.S. response to immigration enforcement violence, questioning the narrative around ICE's actions. The team also navigates the complexities of military intervention in Iran and the geopolitical implications of U.S. interests in Greenland.

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INSIGHT

A More Dangerous Cycle In Iran

Iran's current protests are broader and deadlier than prior cycles, driven by economic collapse and weakened regime posture after recent strikes.
The regime's harsh repression and extended internet shutdown signal it feels unprecedented internal and external pressure.

INSIGHT

Rhetoric Without Tactics Repeats History

U.S. rhetoric encouraging protesters risks repeating historical failures of backing without follow-through.
Effective support blends measured public statements with discreet, tangible assistance like shelters or exfiltration.

ADVICE

Match Words With Practical Support

Calibrate public encouragement with concrete support such as asylum pathways and covert aid for dissidents.
Avoid grand public promises that raise expectations you won't or can't meet.

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This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Tyler McBrien, Michael Feinberg, and Ariane Tabatabai to talk through the week’s big news in national security, including:

“Between Iraq and a Hard Place.” Iran is engaged in perhaps its most serious bout of domestic unrest in a decade, spurred on by a failing economy and the seeming political weakness of the regime after its devastating military conflict with Israel and the United States this past summer. But the regime has struck back viciously, cutting off global media and communications access even as it has engaged in a vicious and violent campaign of repression that may have already led to as many as between 2,000 and 12,000 fatalities. That has led, among other things, to threats from the Trump administration that it may intervene militarily against the regime. What should we be making of this development? What does it mean for the future of Iran, and what role might the United States play in that future?
“A Slippery Slope.” ICE’s increasingly provocative immigration enforcement actions came to a violent head last week in Minneapolis, when ICE agent Jonathan Ross shot and killed driver and possible protest participant Renee Good. While the White House has sought to frame Good as a “domestic terrorist” who threatened Ross, videos of the incident instead suggest that her conduct came nowhere close to the standard normally required for the use of lethal force. The FBI is now reportedly investigating Good’s widow for ties to activist groups, an effort that led several career federal prosecutors to quit this week. How effective are the administration’s attempts to shape the truth likely to prove?
“Green with Envy.” Diplomatic representatives from Denmark and Greenland are meeting with senior administration officials as we record to discuss a way forward on Greenland, the self-governing and all-but-independent Danish territory that President Trump has openly coveted since returning to office, up to and including the threat of military force to acquire it. How serious should the world take these threats? Where is the competition over Greenland likely to lead?

In object lessons, Tyler is setting the mood with a recommendation of Way Dynamic’s album “Massive Shoe.” Mike is boosting our moods with a preview of “One Movie After Another,” a retrospective of Paul Thomas Anderson films, coming soon to the AFI Silver Theatre in Silver Spring. Scott is setting some mood lighting with his Xenomorph-like bedtime reading light from Glocusent. And Ari is getting moody with a revisit of Pedro Almodóvar’s “Pain and Glory.”

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