UBS On-Air: Market Moves Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - The Great Risk Transfer
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Jul 28, 2025 Join Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas at UBS Chief Investment Office, as he delves into pivotal market trends and economic shifts. He previews a week packed with Q2 earnings and discusses the upcoming FOMC meeting's implications. Jason reflects on the recent trade dynamics between the EU and Japan, forecasting tariff impacts. He also explores the critical transition of risk management from public to private sectors and highlights the significance of AI investments in shaping future market strategies.
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Trade Deal Clarity Emerging
- US trade deals with the EU and Japan are narrowing tariff uncertainty to around 15%.
- Canada and Mexico remain key unresolved partners, posing potential future trade risks.
Fed Rate Cut Outlook
- The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates this week, with a 2.5% market chance for a 25 basis point cut.
- Fed policy remains data-dependent, with a probable September cut expected amid mixed US jobs forecasts.
Strong Earnings and AI Investment
- Q2 earnings season shows solid results, beating expectations and revenue averages.
- Increased AI-related capital expenditure signals strong tech sector momentum and investor interest.