We use the 2019 paper, Safety in Numbers, to frame this week’s discussion.
Topics:
- The amount of exposure increases the amount of risk.
- Safety in Numbers is a 2019 update to a 2017 paper of the same name.
- Why you should get down and dirty with the numbers.
- Be careful about what stats do and don’t tell you.
- How volume affects risk potential.
- Rate vs. raw number.
- How our systems encourage familiarity with risk.
Quotes:
“A lot of statistically dodgy stuff gets published in some very, very good journals and some otherwise very good authors.”
“When something is psuedo-science, you tend to find that there are some studies that say that it works...until the very best studies show that the effect doesn’t work at all.”
“Whenever you use a concept of a rate instead of a raw number, you are assuming a linear relationship.”
Resources:
Elvik, R., & Goel, R. (2019). Safety-in-numbers: An updated meta-analysis of estimates. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 129, 136-147.
Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts
Save insights instantly, chat with episodes, and build lasting knowledge - all powered by AI.
